Iran and the United States in Pakistan: the shadow of Beijing and Moscow hovers over the negotiations

Talks between Tehran and Washington have finally begun in Pakistan on Saturday, despite persistent disagreements between the two parties on several aspects of the ceasefire. Uncertainties lingered regarding Iran’s participation, but according to a political analyst, China and Russia may have played a decisive role in bringing Tehran to the negotiation table.

The holding of these discussions, as expected, is not so much due to the success of the American ultimatum but rather the influence of two absent but allied actors of Iran in the conflict, highlighted political analyst Georges Mercier.

“It may be a sign that China and Russia have made it known [to the Iranians] that they must [come to] the negotiation table. Why? Because since the beginning of the conflict, Russia has benefited from higher oil prices for its exports, and China has benefited because it will lower the stature of the United States on the world stage,” he explained in an interview with LCN on Saturday.

The end of the conflict would also be advantageous for China, a major exporting power, added Mr. Mercier.

“China […] has no interest in a recession or a global economic crisis,” he emphasized. “And if this conflict continues, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a longer period, we could witness a major crisis. So, if China tells Iran ‘You must negotiate,’ Iran will have little choice but to negotiate with the Americans.”

A conflict little advantageous for both camps, as neither Washington nor Tehran would really have the interest in reigniting hostilities, according to Georges Mercier.

“The gas price in the United States has increased a lot. War is not more popular today than it was in the past. It is not certain that Trump has political support at home to reignite hostilities, and it is not clear that the Iranians have an interest in reigniting that,” he mentioned.

On the Iranian side, the conflict has already caused significant economic damage, and the situation remains concerning.

“Iranians have still suffered between 300 and 1000 billion dollars in damages. The Iranian economy is doing very, very poorly, they need a lifting of sanctions, inflation would have reached 50%. So, from both sides, there is an objective interest in at least freezing hostilities to allow a return to the status quo,” he summarized.