In breaking with the G7’s migration strategy, the Trump administration simultaneously targets all entry channels into the territory. This global tightening, which affects both asylum and skilled immigration, marks a turning point highlighted by Hippolyte d’Albis, Emmanuelle Auriol, and Lionel Ragot.
Since the September 11, 2001 attacks, most G7 countries have adopted a dual migration strategy. On one hand, they tighten asylum policies and crack down on irregular immigration. On the other, they expand avenues for economic immigration, targeting highly skilled workers and those able to fill jobs in high-demand sectors.
Several countries have implemented mechanisms to facilitate this economic immigration: Canada (Express Entry, 2015), France (Talent Passport, 2016), Germany (Skilled Immigration Act, 2019), Japan (Specified Skilled Worker, 2019), and the United Kingdom (Points Based System, 2021). In 2023, in Hiroshima, G7 foreign ministers reaffirmed this logic, advocating for a “safe, orderly, and regular” migration.
A radical shift in American policy
As shown in a note from the Circle of Economists drafted under the French presidency of the G7, the Trump administration differs from this trend. It targets all migration channels at once, not only tightening controls on irregular immigration but erasing the border that previously separated repression of irregularity and the preservation of channels deemed useful to the economy.
Challenging all migration channels
Since January 2025, presidential decrees have targeted the border, asylum, birthright citizenship, refugee resettlement, and several humanitarian protections. At the same time, the administration broadens deportation priorities, now targeting all undocumented individuals, not just those considered dangerous profiles.
The most radical expression of this is transfers to third countries unrelated to those expelled. Federal judges initially impede these transfers, which authorities then partially reinstate. The crackdown also affects skilled immigration, with the administration introducing an additional $100,000 entry fee on certain new H-1B visas, further shifting selection towards higher salaries.
Overall, the administration seeks to revoke, restrict, or challenge temporary protections for over a million individuals. The change lies not only in the intensity of American migration policy but also in its scope: all channels can now be closed simultaneously.
A migration shock already measurable
The US migration balance was halved in one year, dropping from 2.7 to 1.3 million people between July 2024 and July 2025. This figure could fall to around 321,000 by July 1, 2026. The macroeconomic cost is already evident, with academic studies suggesting that such a decrease in flows would detract several tenths of a point from American growth over two years.
But the most serious economic risk appears in the medium term. Immigration fuels American growth through at least four essential channels. Firstly, the labor supply: foreign-born individuals represent nearly a fifth of the workforce. Secondly, innovation: in the US, holders of temporary visas earn the majority of doctorates in computer science and engineering. Immigrants also disproportionately contribute to patents. A one percentage point increase in the share of highly educated immigrants in the population is associated with a 9-18% rise in patents per capita. Immigration also supports international trade, reducing informational frictions between markets through diasporas. Finally, a portion of the immigrant workforce strengthens the American economy’s adjustment capacity to shocks and promotes the participation of educated women in the labor market in an unexpected manner.
By simultaneously drying up these channels, the Trump administration weakens not only a simple flow of migration but a structural advantage of the American economy. This comes at a time when competition among advanced economies to attract talent is intensifying.
