There are so many unknowns and mysteries in the ceasefire agreement announced yesterday between the United States and Iran that it can only be explained by Donald Trump’s desire to escape this war trap at all costs.
The first major break occurred yesterday in the form of a massacre in Lebanon. When the Pakistani prime minister, a mediator in this conflict, stated that the ceasefire applied to both theaters of war, Iran and Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promptly denied it: not Lebanon. And to prove it, Israel conducted its most violent bombardments since the beginning, causing dozens of deaths, according to Lebanese authorities. Yesterday, Iran threatened to break the truce if the ceasefire did not extend to Lebanon.
American-Iranian negotiations are supposed to take place starting tomorrow in Islamabad. But the ten-point plan produced by Iran, which Donald Trump said was a good basis for negotiation, is puzzling.
These ten points, of which several versions are circulating, constitute a list of maximalist demands from Iran: they would give Tehran a more favorable position than before the war, the opposite of what Washington wanted. This includes compensation for war damages, lifting of sanctions, a supervision role for Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump added to the mystery yesterday by stating that the United States could create a joint venture with Iran to manage the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran currently leverages this transit with cryptocurrencies or the Chinese currency, yuan.
Another surprise comes from another tweet from the American president, announcing that the United States and Iran could work together to bring up the 430 kilos of enriched uranium buried during last year’s bombings. Unless there is a twist, it is difficult to see Iran accepting Americans on its soil for this task, especially since the uranium stock is not part of the 10 points on the table.
We are far from an agreement, which is not surprising after such an intense war. But the basis of the discussion seems completely unbalanced, revealing the absence of American strategy from the beginning.
Just read the detailed, somewhat surreal, account of the American decision to go to war, published this week by the New York Times, to understand how we got to this point. It was Benjamin Netanyahu who presented a four-step plan to the Americans on February 11, in utmost secrecy. Points 3 and 4 were a popular uprising and the fall of the regime. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called points 3 and 4 “bullshit,” according to the investigation, but Donald Trump was committed to this war.
The only one who briefly opposed it was Vice President JD Vance, who is more isolationist. It is now he who will negotiate with the Iranians, which speaks volumes about the stakes of American domestic policy. The Iranians know this and will play on it when they meet this opponent who no longer wants to wage war. This war appears even more senseless today, in the way it ends, or tries to end.
