The agreement between the United States and Iran is unlikely to impact the situation in Lebanon, as the Israeli army may continue its engagement for an extended period. The language used with Iran is that of a truce rather than a ceasefire, indicating the possibility of renewed hostilities. Regional actors have learned from Trump’s method of denying any difficulties, imposing his narrative, and claiming victory regardless of the outcome.
The continuation of operations against Hezbollah could weaken the truce. Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu is displeased with the truce as it does not align with his goals of prolonging the conflict to weaken the regime. Israel’s priorities regarding Iran’s nuclear activities and ballistic capabilities remain unaddressed. By persistently targeting Hezbollah, Israel hopes to disrupt the truce and provoke Iran to resume strikes, allowing Netanyahu to retaliate. Israeli strategic bombing of Lebanon raises questions about Iran’s allegiance to Hezbollah and its proxies.
Nearly five weeks into the war, Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq maintain some capacity for action. The degree of autonomy and behavior of these proxies is crucial. The Hezbollah has suffered significant losses and divisions over involvement in actions against Israel. The Houthis in Yemen have become self-reliant and potentially receive arms from other sources like Russia. The Iraqi militias play a pivotal role in the region’s stability, especially with Iraq yet to form a government post-elections in November.
The prospect of Israel continuing its war in Lebanon and disarming Hezbollah being part of negotiations between the US and Iran to solidify the truce seems unlikely. The US prioritizes other issues like the Strait of Hormuz, appeasing Gulf monarchies, and countering China’s influence in the Middle East. Therefore, Israel may focus on targeting Hezbollah if not allowed to strike Iran during this period.
