Le logo de la Bank of America est visible à l’entrée d’un centre financier de la Bank of America à New York
According to analysts’ estimates, major American banks are expected to report higher quarterly results supported by strong revenues from interest and investment banking fees, but investors will focus on their forecasts amidst growing geopolitical uncertainties related to Iran.
Goldman Sachs will kick off the banking results season on Monday. The largest U.S. bank, JPMorgan Chase, will release its results on Tuesday, along with Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will announce their results on April 15.
Banks will report their results for the quarter ending March 31, a period marked by significant fluctuations in global markets as investors face uncertainties linked to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, oil price volatility, and broader geopolitical risks.
President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday, just two hours before his ultimatum expired demanding Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under threat of massive attacks on its civilian infrastructure.
INTENSE MERGER AND ACQUISITION ACTIVITY
However, several companies have sought to conclude significant merger and acquisition deals before financing conditions change, leading to a wave of transactions and increased activity in the markets.
The first quarter saw strong transaction activity, with nearly twenty mega-deals exceeding $10 billion (8.54 billion euros) globally and 40 transactions valued over $5 billion, according to LSEG data.
Global M&A advisory fees rose to $11.3 billion in the first quarter, with Goldman Sachs leading, according to Jefferies analysts.
Investors will be keen to see how major banks plan to navigate this uncertain environment.
“We expect transaction volumes to benefit from recent geopolitical risks, while investment banking, mortgage lending, and wealth management activities are expected to remain subdued until the conflict is resolved,” said David George, banking analyst at Baird, in a note.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warned in a letter to shareholders on Monday that the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran could trigger shocks in oil and commodity prices, potentially keeping inflation high and pushing interest rates above market expectations.
Profit growth outlooks for 2026, particularly in commercial and industrial segments and commercial real estate, will be another focal point during results conference calls, according to Gerard Cassidy, analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
Federal Reserve data suggests that commercial and industrial (C&I) profit growth accelerated in the first quarter. However, uncertainty related to the Middle East conflict and resulting oil price hikes could impact prospects if tensions persist, he added.
Here is a list of key comments from executives ahead of the first-quarter results:
JPMORGAN
In February, the largest U.S. bank indicated an expected strong growth in investment banking fees and market revenues in the first quarter, easing concerns that the recent stock market decline could affect order books.
BANK OF AMERICA
Co-President Dean Athanasia stated in March that the bank expects at least 7% growth in interest income and a 10% increase in investment banking fees in the first quarter.
CITIGROUP
CEO Jane Fraser announced in March an anticipated 15% growth in investment banking fees and market revenues in the first quarter, with strong activity expected in both divisions despite growing global tensions.
WELLS FARGO
CFO Mike Santomassimo said in February the bank anticipates profit growth this year, focusing on credit cards and auto loans, while mortgage profit dynamics are expected to accelerate.
GOLDMAN SACHS
CEO David Solomon stated in March an anticipation of an acceleration in M&A activities in 2026, despite disruptions related to the U.S.-Israeli conflict against Iran.
MORGAN STANLEY
CFO Sharon Yeshaya declared in January an acceleration in M&A and IPO operations, with transactions in the healthcare and industrial sectors.
Source: Average analyst estimates compiled by LSEG, results
(Nivedita Balu, with contribution from Manya Saini, French version by Elena Smirnova, edited by Augustin Turpin)
