The escalation that Donald Trump is ready for in Iran will sow chaos and death in the Middle East

Donald Trump, on April 6 during a press conference on Iran at the White House.

The economic hardships in the United States and the civilian deaths in the Middle East caused by President Donald Trump’s war against Iran could reach new heights in the coming days if he carries out a pronounced threat: to destroy all of Iran’s electrical infrastructure.

Trump claims that an attack – which would almost certainly constitute a war crime – will occur if Iran does not accept a “deal” by this Tuesday, April 7, at 8:00 p.m. New York time. According to military experts and Iran specialists, the leaders of this country will retaliate in a similar manner against the Gulf states that are assisting the United States. “Iran’s only capability for retaliation is to target America’s immediate allies in the Gulf, as well as Israel if possible,” said Ray Takeyh from the Council on Foreign Relations.

Since the beginning of the war, Iran has targeted military facilities used by American forces in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. It has also hit civilian infrastructure, but attacks on its own civilian infrastructure could lead to further escalation. A particularly dangerous possibility would be attacks on the desalination plants of the Gulf states, even more vital for these largely desert countries than for Iran.

Risks for the region and the global economy

“Iran has already demonstrated its willingness and ability to retaliate equivalently if the United States and Israel intensify their strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure,” said Mona Yacoubian, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Bahrain and the UAE are among the countries likely to be affected. Israeli targets may be harder to reach, but Iran will certainly try to target Israel as well.”

Such a retaliation would significantly increase human suffering already caused by this war, especially if the supply of clean water is reduced. Iran is also likely to target oil installations in the region, which could further disrupt the global market. Crude oil prices have risen by about 50% since the start of the war, and gasoline prices have increased by over a dollar per gallon in the United States. In France, the price of diesel has reached a historic high.

“We are giving them until tomorrow at 8 p.m., and after that, they will have no more bridges, no more power plants. It will be a return to the Stone Age.” Donald Trump, Monday, April 6.

These prospects did not seem to worry Trump on the eve of his ultimatum. Speaking to reporters during the traditional Easter egg hunt at the White House, he stated that Iran was not ready to accept his conditions to end the war. “They simply do not want to say ‘sorry.’ They do not want to give in, as they say, but they will. And if they don’t, they will have no more bridges, no more power plants, nothing. I will not go any further because there are worse things,” he promised.

A few hours later, during a press conference at the White House, he reiterated that his ultimatum for Iran to surrender expired in just over a day. “We give them until tomorrow, 8 p.m. (Eastern time), and after that, they will have no more bridges, no more power plants. It will be a return to the Stone Age,” he asserted. In another message posted on Truth Social on Tuesday, he threatened: “An entire civilization will die tonight. I don’t want this to happen, but it will probably be the case.”

Asked about the consequences for civilians, Trump insisted that ordinary Iranians would be willing to suffer for freedom. “They would be willing to endure suffering to obtain freedom. We have intercepted many messages: ‘Keep bombing,’ bombs falling near their homes… And when we leave, they say, ‘Come back, come back.’ These are the people,” he said.

Trump has “the best plan possible”

However, his exact goals remain unclear. Several times since the start of the airstrikes on February 28, Trump has demanded a regime change in Iran, before claiming on Monday that this change had already happened. He continues to insist that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, while claiming that their program was “deradicalized” during attacks last June.

On Monday, he did not clearly state that reopening the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic was an absolute priority, even though it was part of his previous demands. Trump also refused to outline a potential plan to end the war: “I have the best plan possible, but I won’t tell you what it is.”

He also nostalgically talked about a time when great powers could seize the natural resources of smaller countries – a practice called “looting” and considered a war crime by the Geneva Conventions – by stating that he would like to “take” Iranian oil.

He did not rule out the use of ground troops but did not gather enough forces to control Iranian oil infrastructure. When asked about his intention to escalate or reduce the conflict, Trump replied: “I cannot tell you. I do not know.”

Note: This article is a translation made by the editorial staff of HuffPost France, based on an article published in April 2026 on HuffPost US.