As the war continues in the Middle East, the United States does not forget about other regions of the world. Vice President J.D. Vance is arriving in Hungary today where a highly significant election is taking place.
The Hungarian legislative elections are set for Sunday. Polls suggest that the incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orban, seeking a fifth term after sixteen years of uninterrupted and unchallenged power, is facing difficulties. His main opponent, Peter Magyar, a former member of the ruling Fidesz party and the ex-husband of the former Justice Minister, is gaining traction based on economic and social discontent related to inflation and accusations of corruption. Orban, on the other hand, is framing his campaign around the influence of external forces. He has even found an external scapegoat for the difficulties – Ukraine, accused of risking war for the nearly ten million Hungarians.
A model for the far right This election holds significant geopolitical implications. It is no coincidence that the American Vice President is visiting to support the man who is considered the creator of illiberal democracy and has become a model for many far-right movements around the world. When the U.S. national security strategy recommends supporting so-called friendly or patriotic parties to steer Europe in the right direction, it specifically refers to Hungary. There is a claimed ideological proximity, especially regarding migration issues. Orban has recently spoken at CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Conference, in 2022. The White House is showing substantial support for him, as indicated by the upcoming speech by J.D. Vance on the strong partnership between the United States and Hungary.
A thorn in Europe’s side The alliance between Budapest-Washington-Moscow aims to weaken Europe due to ideological reasons, citing a decline in European values. Hungary significantly contributes to this effort while still receiving European aid, making it a major thorn in the side of the European Union. With the unanimity rule in the European Council, Hungary has effectively blocked or at least delayed foreign policy decisions. The most recent examples include blocking the twentieth package of sanctions against Russia and aid worth 90 billion euros to Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the loyalty of the Budapest government. In the midst of the Hungarian election campaign, European leaders visited Ukraine to commemorate the Boutcha massacre by Russian forces. French diplomats stated their reluctance to interfere in the election, highlighting that European leaders may not regret Viktor Orban’s potential defeat. It would also show that, beyond resisting illiberal models, like in Romania or Moldova, it might be possible to move beyond them.
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