On Sunday April 5, 2026, Donald Trump threatened, with insults, to target vital Iranian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened. The White House tenant eventually postponed his 24-hour ultimatum and, from his side, Iran continues to carry out strikes and refuses to respond to this order. Admiral Pascal Ausseur, director general of the Foundation for the Mastery of Strategic Issues, responds to questions from franceinfo.
Is Iran’s continued strikes and refusal to respond to this ultimatum an admission of weakness on Donald Trump’s part?
The poker game continues and each side is raising the stakes. Donald Trump is waiting for the Iranian regime to capitulate. He has set the bar very high as he did not leave room for a real negotiation. On the other side, there is a regime that is hardening because they know they don’t have many options either. This delay shows that Donald Trump is struggling to respond to this hardening reaction that he had not really anticipated, but at the same time, it is his decision. Militarily, this war is costly, but the Americans have a clear superiority, so they can continue to bombard.
Would this be enough to free the Strait of Hormuz, through which a part of the world’s oil no longer flows, and which may be the major issue for Donald Trump?
Donald Trump cannot liberate the Strait of Hormuz militarily. The Iranians would need to stop blocking it. But what I notice is that they have started negotiating to allow friendly ships to pass, at least those that are not hostile to Iran, so the traffic is partially resuming, certainly because China has told them: “You can’t stay completely blocked like that.” In the last 24 hours, about fifteen ships have passed, including one from the French company CMA-CGM. The Iranians allow certain friendly ships to pass for free: the Chinese, Iraqis, probably Pakistanis, Indians, Russians. Others pay, and the enemy ships, Americans, Israelis, Gulf countries, do not pass at all.
Has Iran found the winning card to maintain pressure at a lower cost?
With the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has a winning card. The fact that they are reopening the tap a little shows two things: they cannot completely isolate themselves and they need some money to make missiles, obtain intelligence from countries like China. At the same time, if the blockade is no longer total and the economic pressure is a bit less than expected, it also gives a breather to Donald Trump.
Another concern lies in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which provides access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Threats are being considered, should we fear an escalation and a blockade?
In my opinion, the threat is less significant for several reasons. For several years, the Houthis have been bombing ships in this area. As a result, half of the traffic has gone around Africa, but we have not seen major economic changes or impacts from this detour. For the Iranians, it is more difficult to completely block the traffic at Bab-el-Mandei. Some oil, especially Saudi, passes through this strait, especially to go to China. And the Chinese do not want to see this traffic blocked, as it is a way for them to drive their economy. I do not believe this threat is really credible.
Four years ago, the Houthis decided to disrupt traffic in the Red Sea. Half of the traffic changed its route and did not return, even though the Houthis no longer fire. It is observed that it is very easy to slow down maritime traffic when it gets closer to the coasts, and in the case of Hormuz, it passes very close to Iran. This has raised insurance premiums and disrupted ships. But maritime traffic is also very flexible, and there are often possible workarounds, which is what is happening now.
