VIDEO CHRONICLE. At the end of the first round, Edouard Philippe is more than ever the favorite on the central arc for the presidential election, while the left is sinking into uncertainty.
Local elections are not always predictive of the following presidential election, or so they say. Except that this one will take place in just one year and we can draw some lessons from last Sunday’s first round. The first lesson is that Edouard Philippe now appears in a dominant position on the right and center arc.
His expected re-election in Le Havre, although largely assured, will now appear as a success in light of polls that had too quickly cast doubt on him. His knowing smile on the evening of the first round spoke volumes. We remember Francois Hollande who, in 2011, successfully launched his conquest of the Elysee after being elected as head of the Correze general council. Will history repeat itself?
“Philippe has fifteen days after his victory to take pole position”, urges a regular at the Elysee, who advises him to strike while the iron is hot and to gather support widely around him, without getting carried away. Within the Macron camp, the sharpest politicians have not been deceived, and some are already wondering when to announce their support for the Horizons leader.
Facing Jordan Bardella and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, if the candidate of the moderate camp is a vase, we will vote for the vase!
A minister
“There is no alternative to Philippe,” affirms a minister, not very enthusiastic. In the Macron camp, they are waiting for a savior like in 2016, but lightning doesn’t strike twice. Certainly, the savior of Le Havre does not inspire dreams within his own camp with his “blood and tears” approach. But, as our familiar from the Elysee philosophizes, “facing Jordan Bardella and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, if the candidate of the moderate camp is a vase, we will vote for the vase!”
The left, on the other hand, seems to be in very great difficulty for 2027 because it is difficult to see who, in this school of thought – if we can still call it that – could do better in the first round than Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who confirms his status as a master tactician.
By uniting with LFI in a large number of municipalities despite the excesses of the rebellious patriarch, the Socialists have knowingly accepted to become his allies, not to say his vassals. As for the RN, perennial favorites in polls for 2027, nothing is decided: who between Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen will be the candidate? The justice will decide on July 7. We should also note the emergence on the far right of the Reconquest series Sarah Knafo, who is unlikely to not run next year.
Applicants or Dividers?
On the right, the old fantasy of right-wing unity has for the moment failed, and the overtures made by Jordan Bardella have been dismissed. The Republicans have savored the delights of strategic autonomy: no alliance with the RN or with Macron’s camp, and it works because they maintain their position in many small and medium-sized municipalities and can hope for some victories this Sunday. “We can take Strasbourg, Besançon, and why not Paris,” hopes a LR leader.
In these circumstances, it is hard to understand why Bruno Retailleau refuses to support in Nice the Horizons candidate, Christian Estrosi, despite the national agreement binding his party to the Philippist movement, risking to elect Eric Ciotti and angering Philippe. Because it is difficult to imagine the right not rallying to him in the end. “Retailleau has three possibilities for 2027: either he believes he can go all the way with his candidacy, or he rallies behind Philippe, or he switches sides,” implies a right-wing figure in radical disagreement with his political line.
Finally, we wish good luck to all those who declare themselves for the Elysee in the coming weeks, starting with Renaissance leader Gabriel Attal. The risk is great, by adding their names to the already long list of candidates, they may be seen as dividers. Because this municipal election has shown that the LFI-RN pincer movement is stronger than ever, and the anticipated showdown in the presidential run-off between the extremes is no longer a fantasy, but the preferred scenario.
