The first has already been a candidate in the presidential election. The second is preparing to be there. In January, Valérie Pécresse and Gabriel Attal discuss the battle at the Elysée. This reflection arises: the results of the first round in the overseas territories, known in mainland France before the closing of the polling stations, will be “exploited” on election day. Could they not mobilize the electorate of a struggling candidate? Or favor the “useful vote” in favor of the one in a good position?
2027, consecration of the strategic voter. The multiplication of candidacies in the former common base, combined with the burial of the primary by the entrants, could well turn the French into tacticians. With the return of the famous useful vote, an attitude consisting of voting for the candidate best placed in a camp to block the path to a hated candidate. Even to a feared scenario, like a Bardella-Mélenchon duel in the second round of the presidential election.
A quest for efficiency
This phenomenon, old, has taken on unprecedented proportions in recent elections. Citizens have a sharp reading of political power relations, guided by polls and the development of news channels. The reflex or family vote is over. The French are volatile, with electoral porosity between camps developing against a backdrop of partisan disaffiliation. The vote is animated by a quest for efficiency, and too bad for the feelings! Valérie Pécresse and Anne Hidalgo, drained in 2022 by Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, experienced it. With an immediate consequence. Access to bank loans to finance a campaign has become more difficult, as institutions measure the fragility of Elysium adventures. “When a candidacy appears useless, it has no floor anymore,” notes MEP Gilles Boyer, close to Edouard Philippe. If the parties do not bring out a single candidate in 2027, the French will do it.
