Decryption. Fuel prices: why the government refuses to apply the cheque policy

The executive has agreed to help certain professionals severely affected by the rise in gas prices, but refuses to generalize this aid to all French citizens. The National Rally and France Unbowed hope to capitalize on the growing discontent.

At a meeting in Bercy, a minister becomes a linguist: “The ‘crisis’ is going to be long, very long. I’m not even sure ‘crisis’ is the right word because it defines a situation, a moment, whereas we are entering an era of ‘permanent crisis’.” Since the start of the war against Iran, government officials responsible for economic affairs have been closely monitoring the inexorable rise in energy prices that could impact the markets in the long term. Indeed, according to one of them, “the oil sites and gas terminals have been durably damaged by the strikes and it will take years to rebuild everything.”

Despite keeping a close eye on the situation, the government refuses to give in to panic, even if it means renouncing the banking policy implemented by Emmanuel Macron at the start of the war in Ukraine. “It was a mistake, it cost us 80 billion,” exclaims someone in Bercy. The Elysée Palace is reportedly on the same page: “I didn’t feel the President ‘open’ to the idea of ‘opening’ the floodgates,” explains a minister, emphasizing the repetition. The distribution of the energy check announced yesterday – but planned long ago – has nothing to do with the current situation. “We are in crisis management, not playing politics,” complains a government pillar. There is no question of giving in to the demands of France Unbowed, who wants to cap prices, or to those of the National Rally, which wants to reduce energy taxes. The government intends to stand firm by only helping professionals who are endangered by these increases, such as fishermen or farmers. The aid has been judged too low by those concerned.

Rather than treating the symptoms, the government prefers to tackle the causes of the crisis affecting the hydrocarbon sector, which could significantly impact inflation. “Everything must be done to free the Strait of Hormuz,” a source close to the Elysée explained yesterday. But, this advisor added, “we must reduce our dependence on oil. The guy (implied Emmanuel Macron) who has been bothering everyone for 9 years saying we need to switch to electric was right.” And a minister summed up these remarks with a slogan: “We must unplug the pump and plug in the socket.”

To achieve this, the executive does not rule out offering aid to professionals who wish to implement an electrification plan. “The President told us that investing to gain independence was useful,” recounts a minister. Furthermore, social leasing, a scheme that allows one to benefit from a new vehicle without having to buy it by paying monthly rents, could be expanded. However, these measures will only be effective in the long term and are not likely to calm the growing anger across France. Some Yellow Vests even anticipate a resurgence of the movement. The Elysée is said to be vigilant: “Without making a bad joke, it’s a flammable subject, we paid to find out,” a counselor confided yesterday.

The government, on the other hand, appears more confident. “During the Yellow Vests era, a minister asserts, the culprit was in the room. This time, it’s not the case.” Therefore, it is in vain, according to the same, for Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Mélenchon to wave the red flag in hopes of benefiting from it: “Sébastien Lecornu did not want a presidential candidate minister in his government precisely so that our action is not trapped by electoral issues.” However, it is necessary to hold on until 2027. Yet, a motion of censure related to the price increases is not unlikely.