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Hubert Coudurier: Marine Le Pen is at the threshold of her political destiny

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Why are you interested in Marine Le Pen?

It was while writing the biography of Valérie Pécresse in 2017 that I had a revelation. I thought to myself: the real power lies with Marine Le Pen. It is a dynasty that has been significant in political life even if, today, we no longer consider it to be the late Jean-Marie Le Pen, the “devil of the Republic”, but rather Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The Le Pen family, from father to daughter, questions our relationship to the country, to the homeland, and to major societal issues: immigration, security, France’s sovereignty…

What is the “Le Pen mystery”?

The mystery is whether she truly wants power. She currently leads the main opposition party and is at the threshold of her destiny, with the prospect of being deprived of it. But I think she somewhat trapped herself by appointing Jordan Bardella because she is no longer indispensable. There is an undeniable generational phenomenon around him, and it is also a way to turn the page on the Le Pen family.

The mystery is whether she wants power

What are her relationships, specifically with Jordan Bardella?

I don’t believe there is tension between them. But in reality, he can’t handle the slightest criticism, he is very touchy, probably due to a lack of self-confidence. I’m not sure he is a good choice for a presidential election: he is not ready. This doesn’t mean he lacks qualities: he has a real sense of adaptation. But he doesn’t have the same character as her. He is an ambitious person who has built his career step by step. A recent scene is striking: on one side, Marine Le Pen dancing in a retirement home to Jean-Luc Lahaye with the residents; on the other, Jordan Bardella leaving the Figaro’s 200th anniversary with an Italian princess, Maria Carolina de Bourbon Two Sicilies. Will the future of the RN pass through him? Answer at the appeal hearing on July 7th.

Is there a common political line?

There is a union of the right line with Bardella while Marine Le Pen remains in a position of “neither right nor left,” inherited from her father. This allows them to reach a wide audience. But at some point, they will have to move away from ambivalence. The RN has become a populist catch-all party, demagogic, with a clear objective: the conquest of power. From this perspective, it recalls past strategies, such as those of Jacques Chirac against Edouard Balladur, or even François Mitterrand in 1981.

What are her ties to Brittany?

Historically, the Atlantic coast was social-democratic. But there have been significant changes. Brest has recently shifted to the right, a major development in 25 years. And in some rural areas, the RN is making progress. The Le Pen family is rooted in La Trinité-sur-Mer (56) but has no deep connection to Brittany. Jean-Marie Le Pen spent part of his youth there and is buried there. Today, we are seeing a gradual return of the family, a form of establishment.

What have you learned about her that we don’t know?

What I wanted to show and explain is an RN that is modernizing. We are far from the image of a not very serious party, with “thugs” who didn’t work much and mostly liked to party. Today, they are clearly on the path to professionalism.

Hubert Coudurier: Marine Le Pen is at the threshold of her political destiny
Marine Le Pen at the National Assembly podium. (Photo Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA)

How does this translate concretely?

Read the chapter “Economics Section for Dummies”. It took place at the Assembly, where I was, incidentally, the only one attending this seminar. This “master class” brought together Renaud Labayle, Ambroise de Rancourt, as well as those we often see on television like Sébastien Chenu or Jean-Philippe Tanguy. These “modern” individuals are now much more polished than the old guard.

Was it easy to penetrate her inner circle and get her to talk?

Yes, she is quite direct. I didn’t see her as much as I would have liked, but I met her several times at the Assembly, where she occupies François Fillon’s former office. However, she screened a number of interviews: several people agreed to speak to me because she had given them permission.

Does she still want to exercise power? She seemed to give up before the setbacks in the 2024 legislative elections.

There are indeed moments of discouragement and resignation in her. For example, after an intervention on RTL, Sébastien Chenu reportedly advised her not to overdo it in that direction. She may have seemed ready to pass the torch. But today, she is moving forward with determination. She believes she didn’t do all this for nothing. And some on the right believe that if Jordan Bardella were to take the forefront, it would open up opportunities for them as they doubt his ability to sustain a long campaign. She is much tougher than him!

How did the party go from the statement about concentration camps, referred to as a “detail of history,” to an RN that has become pro-Israeli?

This happened in several stages, through Louis Aliot, William Goldnadel, or Arno Klarsfeld. I tell, for instance, an anecdote about a trip to New York with the Israeli ambassador, who, after meeting her, claimed to have been deceived. But there is mainly an evolution linked to the geopolitical context. She now clearly aligns herself to the fight against Islamism. Where her father was more aligned with certain Arab regimes, she embraces her era. She takes very assertive pro-Israeli positions, sometimes without nuance. She even told me: “They are survivors, so they must be defended.”

And with Donald Trump?

She does not want to fall out with Washington, even though a trip to the United States is not on the agenda today. It was considered at one point but her entourage was divided due to the rejection that the White House leader elicits.

Finally, does Meloni’s setback regarding the judiciary mark the end of the expansion of populist ideas in Europe?

Firstly, it must be remembered that the far right has never really tried to take power in France, even though it has made significant progress. In other places, the situations are varied: it is in power in Hungary, with elections coming up in April, and participates in governments in some Scandinavian countries. Denmark, for example, has adopted very restrictive immigration measures, even though the far right has receded there. And when these movements come to power, their momentum can also fade, as we saw with Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. As for Donald Trump, he remains subject to electoral challenges, the midterms. More broadly, these surges often reflect middle-class dissatisfaction, but they do not always have staying power.

“The Marine Le Pen Mystery” by Hubert Coudurier, 22 euros, published by Plon.