In a few days, the rise in tensions in the Gulf was enough to make global markets react. Oil prices are on the rise, investors are worried, and states are closely monitoring the situation. At the heart of the tensions: the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage through which a significant part of the world’s oil passes.
Is this the beginning of a new oil shock, or simply another crisis in a structurally unstable region? In the program “Je pense donc j’agis” on RCF Notre Dame, Melchior Gormand speaks with General Dominique Trinquand, author of the book “D’un monde à l’autre,” and Frédéric Encel, PhD in geopolitics and author of the book “La guerre mondiale n’aura pas lieu.”
A crisis shaking markets more than supplies
The first consequence of this crisis is immediate: oil prices react strongly. Every tension in the Gulf leads to an increase, fueled by uncertainty and perceived risks on maritime routes. But specialists advise to put the phenomenon into perspective. “We are not in 1973,” Frédéric Encel points out, emphasizing that the market today is much more diversified and less dependent on a single region. The same goes for Dominique Trinquand, who highlights European developments: “Europe no longer depends on oil from the Gulf in the same way,” thanks to the diversification of sources.
> “Markets react instantly.”
On the other hand, markets remain extremely sensitive. Shipowners hesitate to cross a now more dangerous zone, insurers raise their rates, and investors anticipate risks. The result: a rapid rise in prices, sometimes disconnected from the reality of stocks. “Markets react instantly,” points out Dominique Trinquand, mentioning amplified volatility due to algorithms and political announcements. For Frédéric Encel, this dynamic is enough to create “a mini oil shock,” without necessarily leading to a major energy crisis. In other words, it is not so much the lack of oil that worries today as the fear of a potential blockage.
A strong geopolitical tension, but no global shift
While the crisis is serious, it does not mean an entry into a world war. According to Frédéric Encel, the conditions are simply not met: “There are no military blocs comparable to those of the two world wars today.” On the international stage, major powers are moving cautiously. The United States intervene, but not with total commitment. China, on the other hand, remains on the sidelines and observes carefully. “It’s counting points,” analyzes Dominique Trinquand, assessing American capabilities and their room for maneuver.
> “There are no military blocs comparable to those of the two world wars today.”
In this context, oil becomes a strategic tool among others, used to influence power dynamics without necessarily triggering direct conflict. Furthermore, the role of the Gulf is evolving. “We are no longer talking just about oil and gas,” says Dominique Trinquand, mentioning the development of other sectors such as fertilizers, aluminum, or industrial components. This diversification strengthens the region’s importance in the global economy.
European caution
The strategy remains cautious in Europe. The goal is to secure supplies while avoiding military escalation. According to Frédéric Encel, France maintains “a consistent position,” based on respect for international law and regional stability. Finally, an unpredictable factor remains: American unpredictability. The geopolitician mentions a policy guided by “mercantilism,” where decisions respond first to economic interests, contributing to global uncertainty.
