The President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, dismissed in January the scenario of American intervention and reaffirmed her country’s sovereignty in combating drug cartels and trafficking. The killing of a powerful cartel leader by the army this Sunday confirms her government’s commitment to responding to Washington’s demands for results while containing cartel violence within its territory. Le Devoir examines the significance of this operation with Valentin Pereda, an associate professor at the School of Criminology at the Université de Montréal, specializing in organized crime in Mexico.
Significant violence erupted on Sunday in the state of Jalisco, western Mexico, after the army assassinated the powerful drug lord Nemesio Oseguera, also known as El Mencho. The leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), one of the most powerful and violent criminal groups in the country, was actively sought by Mexico and the United States.
Professor Valentin Pereda highlights the difficulty of organizing an offensive against a cartel of this magnitude, which has enormous financial and military resources. He explains, “We are talking about groups that have true armies of mercenaries and are heavily armed.” He adds that the proximity to the United States, the largest firearms producer, facilitates the supply of assault rifles, as well as rocket launchers or specialized weapons that can rival those of the national army.
Another major challenge is the presence of corruption at various levels of the government, which can compromise the confidentiality of certain military plans. “It is extremely delicate to orchestrate an operation like this without significant information leaks that would allow the criminal group to anticipate or escape before the army arrives,” summarizes Mr. Pereda.
He believes that Sunday’s operation was carefully planned, especially since failure would have meant a severe humiliation for the Sheinbaum government. This was the case in 2015, he recalls, when the Mexican government unsuccessfully tried to capture Nemesio Oseguera for the first time. Members of his cartel then shot down an army helicopter and launched an offensive that resulted in about ten deaths.
Known as one of the most violent drug trafficking groups in Mexico, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel was formed in 2009, according to the U.S. Department of Justice. The death of its leader, Nemesio Oseguera, marks one of the most severe blows to the world of drug trafficking since the arrest of the founders of the Sinaloa Cartel, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, in 2016, and Ismael “Mayo” Zambada, in July 2024, both of whom are imprisoned in the United States.
For Mr. Pereda, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s strategy against cartels and drug trafficking aims to calm Washington’s criticism of drug trafficking while strongly defending Mexico’s sovereignty. Since his return to power, U.S. President Donald Trump has made drug trafficking from Mexico one of his favorite topics, even stating last October that Mexico was “controlled by cartels.”
The possibility of U.S. military intervention in Mexican territory, often mentioned by Republicans, has gained new gravity following the U.S. intervention in Venezuela in early January.
“Sheinbaum seeks to show the U.S. government that Mexico takes the issue of drug trafficking and organized crime seriously and that it can demonstrate tangible results,” summarizes Professor Pereda. He cites the Sunday assassination of leader Nemesio Oseguera, the January arrest of Canadian drug trafficker Ryan James Wedding, and the extradition of 37 cartel members to the United States in the same month as examples.
Managing diplomatic relations with the Trump administration is increasingly important as the renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Free Trade Agreement (CUSMA) approaches, and Washington’s expansionist threats regarding South America, Greenland, or Canada, the professor notes.
Concerns on the domestic front
Valentin Pereda believes that Claudia Sheinbaum’s approach is “less incendiary” than some of her predecessors who promised open war against cartels, but also stronger than former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who disapproved of violent repression.
He argues that the president must gauge the strength of her response to cartels to avoid a surge of violence at the country level. “The Sheinbaum government, like its predecessors, must sometimes engage in informal negotiations with representatives of organized crime,” he said, adding that Mexico will never admit this publicly. These “tacit negotiations” may involve easing police or military repression in a region if a criminal group agrees to reduce violent crimes.
Following the assassination of Nemesio Oseguera, the professor expects clashes between different factions of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to vie for power, or counteroffensives from rival cartels.
As the tourist region of Puerto Vallarta is shaken by gang violence, he points out that the Sheinbaum government faces the challenge of maintaining its reputation abroad and showcasing that Mexico is relatively stable and secure with the approach of the upcoming World Cup in June.
