Even before the war began, Iranian officials repeatedly warned that while Trump might start a conflict with Tehran, he would not be the one to decide when it ends.
Now, Trump is striking an optimistic tone, suggesting the war may be nearing an end, even as Iran’s foreign ministry denies that any dialogue is underway.
Over the past few weeks, Iran has surprised many with the scale and persistence of its ability to disrupt the global economy, effectively shutting the world’s most important energy chokepoint while continuing to strike its neighbors and Israel despite Trump administration claims that its retaliatory capacity had been “obliterated.”
When Tehran resumed talks with Washington ahead of this war, it did so from its weakest position yet, with much of its regional leverage eroded by a two-year Israeli campaign against its proxies, and its nuclear leverage largely diminished by US and Israeli strikes on its facilities.
Now, with the effects of the war rippling across the globe, Iran appears to have significantly more leverage in talks with the US than before the conflict, and is likely to use it, banking on mounting pressure on Trump at home and abroad to bring the war to an end.
That helps explain why its demands have been so sweeping: a permanent end to the war with guarantees it will not resume, a reduction of US military presence in the region, compensation for damages, and a new “status quo” in the Strait of Hormuz that reflects Iranian interests.
Taken together, these demands suggest Tehran believes it is negotiating from a position of strength and is seeking to seize the moment to reshape the regional balance of power in its favor.
Nearly all of these demands would be a non-starter for the US and Israel, and would leave Washington’s Gulf Arab allies facing a more emboldened and hardline Iran, one that has turned a decades-long proxy conflict into open war over the past three weeks.
And even if Trump were willing to entertain such terms, it is far from clear he could bring Israel on board. For Iran, the US may be the more powerful adversary, but Israel remains the closer and more enduring threat.
