Benyamin Netanyahou stated last weekend that Iran is “on the verge of being defeated”, with its nuclear and ballistic capabilities being neutralized according to him. However, Tehran resists, with blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted strikes on Gulf countries and Israel. Behind the facade of the coalition, strategic differences between Washington and Tel Aviv deepen, with Trump facing a narrative crisis even within his own camp. How does Iran continue to defy the world’s top military power? The United States are getting bogged down in the conflict.
In an interview, Benjamin Netanyahou affirmed that “Iran is on the brink of being defeated” and its military capabilities “have been significantly weakened.” However, this remains “a certain admission of weakness” since on the ground, Iran launches “about twenty missiles a day” and dozens of drones, targeting increasingly sensitive sites. According to Héloïse Fayet, this resistance shows Iran’s strength, with “asymmetric capabilities” that are very difficult to eradicate, allowing for constant pressure, particularly through its regional networks and the threat to the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite targeted strikes on its infrastructure, Iran maintains operational methods thanks to a decentralized organization and concealed mobile launchers. Héloïse Fayet explains that “Iran has been preparing for this situation for decades” and has the capacity to continue attacks through its network in the region. At the same time, Israel remains exposed, even though its anti-missile systems limit the damage: “another state would have much more destruction,” evidence of real but contained vulnerability.
Behind the displayed alliance, divergences emerge between Washington and Tel Aviv with “unclear objectives.” In the U.S., the war is causing increasing discomfort, even among Republicans, as the cost reaches “about 1 billion dollars a day.” The objectives appear vague and evolving: “we don’t fully understand what the Israeli and American objectives are,” notes the researcher, revealing a political narrative crisis around the conflict.
The absence of a decisive victory paves the way for a war of attrition. Iraq illustrates this extension, with pro-Iranian militias attacking American bases and local forces, creating an “extremely complex” situation. Without a clear strategy, a premature declaration of victory could reignite the conflict in the medium term. Three key factors will weigh on the future: regional expansion, security in the Strait of Hormuz, and global economic repercussions.
