Attacks on water are rare in times of war, but they have emerged in the Middle East conflict, with strikes on seawater desalination plants, a vital sector for millions of inhabitants in the region.
After an ultimatum from Donald Trump threatening to destroy Iranian power plants if Tehran did not quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has escalated tensions, now targeting water desalination plants in the region.
“The first one who dares to attack the water triggers a war that is far more devastating than the one we have today,” warned water economist Esther Crauser-Delbourg, speaking to AFP in early March.
Which infrastructures were hit?
In Iran, water management facilities suffered significant damage following American-Israeli strikes, according to the government.
“Dozens of water transmission and treatment facilities” were targeted in these attacks, which “destroyed parts of critical supply networks,” detailed Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi last Sunday.
In Bahrain, a seawater desalination plant was damaged on March 8 by a drone attack from Tehran, in retaliation for an attack attributed to the United States on an Iranian desalination plant.
Why is desalinated water important?
In one of the world’s driest regions where water availability is ten times lower than the global average according to the World Bank, desalination plants play a vital role in the economy and the drinking water consumption of millions of inhabitants.
Approximately 42% of the global desalination capacity is in the Middle East, as shown in a recent study published in the journal Nature. In the United Arab Emirates, 42% of drinking water comes from these plants, 90% in Kuwait, 86% in Oman, and 70% in Saudi Arabia, detailed a report from the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) from 2022.
“Without desalinated water, there is nothing down there,” summarized Esther Crauser-Delbourg. This is particularly strategic in major metropolises like Dubai and Riyadh.
As early as 2010, a CIA analysis note stated that “disruption of desalination facilities in most Arab countries could have more serious consequences than the loss of any other industry or raw material.”
And in 2008, the Wikileaks site revealed a US diplomatic cable stating that “Riyadh should evacuate within a week,” in case the desalination plant in Jubail that supplies it, or its pipelines, were “severely damaged or destroyed.”
What threats do they face?
In addition to strikes, these plants are vulnerable to power cuts that supply them and potential contamination of seawater, particularly from black tides, say several experts.
“We have strengthened access security, controls in the immediate vicinity of the plants,” detailed Philippe Bourdeaux, director of the Africa/Middle East region at the French company Veolia, which supplies desalinated water to the regions of Muscat, Sohar, and Salalah in Oman, and Jubail in Saudi Arabia.
“The recent events certainly make us very attentive. We are closely monitoring the situation at the facilities,” he added, specifying that “in some countries, authorities have placed missile batteries around the largest plants, to counter the drone or missile threat.”
For black tides, operators have tools to reduce nuisances.
What are the precedents?
A few attacks on desalination plants have occurred in the past ten years: Yemen and Saudi Arabia have mutually attacked each other, and Gaza has been hit by Israeli strikes, according to the California-based Pacific Institute think tank, which keeps a register of water-related conflicts.
Before 2016, one must go back to 1991 and the Gulf War to see such attacks.
What are the effects in case of an attack?
They can range from temporary disruptions to much heavier consequences if the situation persists.
“We could potentially see major cities fleeing. And then rationing,” imagines Esther Crauser-Delbourg, with cascading effects on the economy: tourism, industry, and data centers, big water consumers to keep cool.
There are safeguards, tempers Philippe Bourdeaux of Veolia: desalination plants are often interconnected, which can limit the consequences of a single plant shutdown, he explains.
He adds that they generally have several days, from two to seven, of reserve consumption, enough to contain shortages as long as outages do not last too long.
