Since the start of the war between Iran and the Israeli-American alliance on February 28, 2026, Gulf countries have been destabilized, even though they are not directly involved in the conflict. Among them, the United Arab Emirates, known for the flamboyance of Dubai, are particularly affected.
Is the Emirati model being weakened by the conflict?
The United Arab Emirates are going through a major period of uncertainty since the beginning of the regional conflict. The reputation of being a haven of peace and an idyllic destination, on which part of the country’s economic attractiveness relies, is severely challenged. The Emirati government, aware of the vulnerability of its model based on investor and highly skilled expatriate trust, is trying to strictly control communication, especially towards influencers and the press, in order to avoid any panic or mass exodus:”It is a regime whose economy relies on its good image, on its good international reputation, and so it is obviously essential for it to control this image by controlling communication. Also, the economy of the United Arab Emirates relies on qualified and wealthy expatriates, foreign investors, and in the face of this conflict, they are the most likely to leave the country quickly, threatening the economic model,” explains Laurence Louar. It is important to remember that 90% of the population of the United Arab Emirates is foreign.
A dual economic architecture: Abu Dhabi and Dubai
As Alexandre Kazerouni reminds us, the economic dynamism of the United Arab Emirates is based on a historical and geographical distinction between Abu Dhabi, rich in hydrocarbons, and Dubai, a commercial hub. Abu Dhabi, which holds the majority of oil reserves, has centralized the federal state by using its financial resources to ensure the dependence of the other emirates. On the other hand, Dubai has built its growth on its deep-water port and airport infrastructure, establishing itself as a global transit hub, a visionary project that has capitalized on regional tensions and the needs of neighboring markets.
Will the war change the relations between Iran and the United Arab Emirates?
The relations between Iran and the United Arab Emirates have been particularly intense for many years now. “At the end of the 19th century, in the 1890s, the modern state developed in Iran, with in particular a customs system that pushed Iranian merchants to migrate to Dubai. From the 1890s to the 1940s, let’s say, there were population movements from southern Iran to the southern shore of the Persian Gulf, especially to Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah, creating a whole network of trade,” explains Alexandre Kazerouni. These historical commercial and demographic exchanges with Iran have significantly contributed to the expansion of Dubai.
How to explain this Iranian targeting of the Emirates? According to Laurence Louar, it should be noted that there are American, French, and British military bases in the Emirates. Furthermore, since the signing of the Abraham Accords between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv in 2020, “we know that there is a very advanced security cooperation with Israel which may explain why the United Arab Emirates are the preferred target of Iranian attacks at the moment.”
