Ceasefire in Lebanon, unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment… What will the negotiations focus on

In Islamabad, Pakistan, the first direct talks between the United States and Iran are set to begin this Friday. Significantly, the specific agenda and the presence of the Iranian delegation are still uncertain.

Over 10,000 mobilized men, paramilitary rangers deployed… In Pakistan, the city of Islamabad was placed under high security on Friday, April 10, as talks between the United States and Iran are set to take place, the first since the war began a month and a half ago.

The two delegations are scheduled to meet face-to-face at a luxury hotel in the Pakistani capital. On the American side, Vice President J.D. Vance and Donald Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will lead these negotiations.

On the Iranian side, many uncertainties persist: the Iranian delegation, which is still vague about its arrival, could include Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament, and Abbas Araghtchi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

The discussion topics include the end of the war (including a ceasefire in Lebanon), the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and, as always, the enrichment of Iranian uranium.

A lasting peace agreement

After five weeks of a war that has claimed thousands of lives, the ceasefire reached just in time Wednesday between Washington and Tehran has brought some relief. But this time, the goal is to go further and reach a lasting peace agreement. Donald Trump believes in it and says he is “very optimistic.” “Iranian leaders speak very differently in public meetings and to the press. They are much more reasonable,” assured the President of the United States in an interview with NBC News.

There are less certainties on the Iranian side: the Iranian Supreme National Security Council has warned that the talks will be held “with total distrust of the United States.” Friday morning, the first major news bulletin on Iranian state television made no mention of the upcoming talks. “The reports by some media that an Iranian negotiating team had arrived in Islamabad, Pakistan, to negotiate with the Americans are totally false,” reported the Iranian news agency Tasnim, quoting an anonymous source.

Ceasefire in Lebanon

To carry out these talks successfully, each side is trying to define the framework. Iran proposes relying on a list of ten points, while the United States suggests another working basis of fifteen points.

In its points, Tehran demands “the cessation of the war on all fronts, including against the Islamic resistance in Lebanon.” “Holding talks to end the war depends on the United States respecting its commitments to ceasefires on all fronts, especially in Lebanon,” warned Esma’il Baghaei, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, cited by the Isna news agency.

The ceasefire in Iran did not prevent Israel from shelling the Lebanese Hezbollah, an ally of Tehran. Powerful strikes carried out by the Israeli army across the country killed more than 300 people, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, and left over 1,000 wounded. These are the deadliest bombings since the beginning of the war in late February.

“Because of Hezbollah,” Lebanon “was not included in the ceasefire agreement,” said Donald Trump in an interview with PBS. But, he promises, “that will be resolved. Everything is fine.” The inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire should therefore be addressed in the closed-door meetings in Islamabad.

Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

Another central issue: the Strait of Hormuz. The United States demands the immediate reopening of this huge maritime strait, crucial for the global traffic of oil and gas. It is even one of the conditions of the ceasefire signed on Wednesday.

But Iran does not seem to agree. Now the question of a toll is emerging. According to the Financial Times, Tehran would ask for $1 per barrel of oil passing through the strait, paid in cryptocurrencies. According to Bloomberg, ships would be asked for up to $2 million per passage.

“They had better not do it, and if they do, they had better stop now,” warned Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform. He accuses Iran of doing “a really bad job, some would say, unworthy, to allow oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Since the ceasefire came into effect, the tankers and other freighters that have been able to pass through the strait can be counted on one hand.

“Let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Iran has clearly indicated, through its statements and actions, that passage is subject to authorization, conditions, and political pressure. This is not about freedom of navigation but coercion,” lamented Sultan Al Jaber, the director of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, on LinkedIn.

Iranian nuclear issue

If the Iranian delegation goes to Islamabad, it has another claim to assert: the recognition of its right to enrich uranium. On Thursday, in an interview with the Isna news agency, the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization ruled out any restrictions on its nuclear program. “The claims and demands of our enemies to restrict Iran’s uranium enrichment program are just empty wishes that will be buried,” warned Mohammad Eslami.

On this issue, Washington has completely different demands. They include the prohibition of uranium enrichment in Iran, the removal of highly enriched uranium buried under the rubble of bombed nuclear facilities, and a reduction of the Iranian ballistic missile program.

“Iran’s refusal to comply with long-standing U.S. nuclear requirements will undoubtedly prevent an agreement in Islamabad,” predicted the Soufan Center, a think tank based in New York. And adds: “Iranian leaders know that Trump will not risk the economic consequences of a resumption of conflict.” This would force him to “soften U.S. positions to reach an agreement.”