Washington (AFP) – Inflation soared last month in the United States, reaching 3.3% over the year, according to official data released on Friday. This surge reflects the surge in prices at the pump following the Middle East war.
In comparison, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in February. Between February and March, pump prices jumped by 21.2%. Such a monthly percentage increase had not been observed since the creation of a gasoline index in 1967, according to the US statistical service BLS.
However, even excluding volatile energy and food prices, inflation accelerated (2.6% versus 2.5% a month earlier). Markets were expecting to see such numbers, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch.
The Middle East war was triggered on February 28 by Israeli-American airstrikes on Iran. Tehran responded, including by blocking maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world’s oil and gas typically pass through. Despite being the world’s largest oil producer, the United States was not immune to the rising prices.
Pump prices quickly rose. A gallon (3.78 liters) of regular gasoline currently costs an average of $4.15 in the United States, compared to about $3 just before the war. The US government, elected partly on the promise to improve purchasing power, assures that the economic disruptions on national soil will be temporary.
“Just the beginning”
“The war in Iran has obvious economic repercussions that weigh heavily on middle and low-income households,” said economist Heather Long of Navy Federal Credit Union on Friday. “The rise in gasoline, diesel, and airfare prices is already being felt and is putting American households to the test,” she continued.
“And this is just the beginning,” Long predicted, expecting to see food and transportation costs rise in April. When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, inflation continued to follow the decline that began under Joe Biden, compared to the peak reached in spring 2022 (the war in Ukraine, which began a few months later, drove pump prices even higher than today).
The CPI index rose by only 2.3% year-on-year in April 2025, a period corresponding to the announcement by the US president of a significant increase in tariffs on imported products. Inflation then reversed course, with Washington refusing to see it as a consequence of these tariffs.
Price increases had slowed again at the end of last year, largely due to gasoline prices, which were then relatively low. At the last Federal Reserve meeting in mid-March, Chairman Jerome Powell explained that the war could postpone the moment when inflation would be brought under control in the US.
The US central bank aims for a limited price increase of 2%, a target it has not reached in five years due to a series of shocks (Covid-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, tariffs).
AFP/VJ
/2026/04/10/69d8b527a8a39115701226.jpg "Ceasefire in Lebanon, unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment… What will the negotiations focus on")
