Middle East: This is the first time Iran negotiates saying the Strait of Hormuz is ours. We are in an absurd situation

On the eve of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Pakistan, the ceasefire appears fragile. Yesterday, Israel heavily struck southern Lebanon, leading to 182 deaths and 890 injuries. The pro-Iranian Hezbollah claimed on Thursday to have launched rockets at Israel in response to what they called a “violation of the ceasefire”. This situation has irritated Iran, which considers Lebanon to be part of the ceasefire and has announced the implementation of a toll to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Internationally, many countries including France have called for the restoration of freedom to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz and for the halt of strikes on Lebanon.

Israeli strikes in Lebanon weaken the ceasefire

According to Gilles Kepel, a professor and Middle East specialist, by continuing its strikes in Lebanon, “Israel is looking to finish the job” with regards to Hezbollah. The Israeli government is taking advantage of “complete confusion in statements at the top of the United States” to continue strikes in Lebanon as well. Additionally, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the ceasefire is “not the end of the campaign” against Iran, and Israel is “ready to resume the fight at any moment.”

Meanwhile, the United States also announced that the American military will remain deployed near Iran until the full implementation of a “real agreement.”

Is Iran strengthened after the war?

Gilles Kepel suggests that the fragility of the ceasefire also reflects the failure of the war led by the United States. The cost of the war in Iran to the United States has been estimated at between 22 and 31 billion euros by the Financial Times, and the depletion of critical ammunition stocks also contributed to the conclusion of this ceasefire.

In many ways, Iran seems to have emerged strengthened from this conflict. This is the first time Iran has negotiated by asserting “the Strait of Hormuz belongs to us. We are in an absurd situation.” Despite the elimination of the Iranian supreme leader and many leaders in a strike on February 28, the regime has managed to survive. The regime may be both hardened and weakened. The post-war future needs to be secured, and Gilles Kepel doubts whether the Revolutionary Guards regime will be able to ensure it.