French forces conduct a three-month major military exercise called Orion 26
By John Irish
France is considering 36 billion euros in additional defense spending by 2030 as part of the update to its Military Programming Law (LPM) 2024-2030, which includes strengthening the nuclear arsenal and stocks of missiles and drones.
This increase signals a faster acceleration compared to the current annual increase of 3 billion euros in military spending, reflecting growing security pressures linked to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
It also takes into account the increasing uncertainty about U.S. commitments to NATO under the presidency of Donald Trump, who threatened to leave the Alliance earlier this month.
The updated law for the period 2024-2030 would raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by the end of the decade, up from about 2% currently.
The budget would reach 76.3 billion euros in 2030, nearly double its 2017 level.
NATO, particularly under pressure from Donald Trump, increased last year the defense spending target from member countries to 5% of national GDP by 2035, up from 2% currently.
“The profound and sudden evolution of international balances today requires us to go faster and stronger,” said Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin in a statement accompanying the bill to be presented to Parliament.
“France has taken note of the world’s shift towards sustained and multifaceted conflict,” she added, recalling remarks made in late March during her closing speech at the Paris Forum on Defense and Strategy.
STRENGTHENING NUCLEAR DETERRENCE
A key element of the LPM update is the reinforcement of French nuclear deterrence, desired by Emmanuel Macron in an early March speech where he announced an increase in the number of French nuclear warheads.
The president also mentioned the concept of “advanced” deterrence, taking into account the interests of France’s European allies without delegating the “ultimate decision” to use nuclear weapons.
According to the updated LPM, which the government hopes will be voted on by July 13, the government will increase the number of nuclear warheads in its arsenal while maintaining nuclear spending at about 13% of the overall defense budget, including modernizing maritime and aerial components.
France spends about 5.6 billion euros annually on maintaining its stockpile of 290 weapons, making it the fourth-largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
The number of warheads was slightly over 300 before 2008, when Nicolas Sarkozy decided to reduce the number to its current level.
AMMUNITION AND MISSILES
With the war in Ukraine highlighting the deficiencies of NATO’s American partners in military capabilities and a conflict in the Middle East exacerbating these shortages, the bill sees a significant increase in investments in conventional military capabilities.
An additional 8.5 billion euros will be devoted to ammunition to replenish stocks of artillery shells, air defense missiles, and long-range missiles.
“Studies will be launched as early as 2026 to have a conventional ballistic missile capability with a range of 2,500 km by 2035,” the bill reads.
“In parallel, our current armaments (cruise missiles as well as guided and propelled bombs) will be diversified and improved in speed and maneuverability to penetrate the most advanced defenses.”
AIR AND ANTIMISSILE DEFENSE
Air and antimissile defense will also be a priority, with an additional 1.6 billion euros allocated to accelerate the delivery of SAMP/T NG systems, manufactured with Italy, and enhance drone fighting capabilities on land, sea, and around critical infrastructure.
“Surface-air defense capabilities will be increased and improved with deliveries of additional antiaircraft gun systems to protect units like airbases,” the bill states.
With drone and robot warfare now considered structural, funding for this segment must increase by 2 billion euros over 2026-2030, a 39% increase from the initial LPM, bringing the total to 8.4 billion over 2024-2030.
Each unit will soon have its own drone system, and the acquisition of a “sovereign drone capability” of MALE drones (medium altitude, long endurance) prepares for the replacement of American-made Reaper drones by 2035.
Keen on reducing Europe’s dependence on the United States for military equipment, France also plans to develop a sovereign early warning system capable of detecting missile launches.
This system would include land-based radars and a European satellite with infrared detection capability, expected to be operational by 2035.
