Climate change could make a fifth of the land currently dedicated to growing arabica coffee unsuitable for cultivation by 2050, according to a report by Rabobank released on Monday.
Currently, 8% of arabica cultivation areas — notably in Brazil, Colombia, and Honduras — are not suitable, requiring more investment and offering lower yields, the Dutch bank specified.
The report, based on scientific data, categorizes cultivation areas into four categories, ranging from “very suitable” to “unsuitable”, Rabobank noted, adding that these definitions depend on both current and projected climate conditions.
“Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns can make coffee growing conditions less predictable and increase the frequency of climate shocks such as droughts, heatwaves, and heavy rainfall,” the bank continued.
“Greater variability in climate conditions poses risks to the reliability of supply.”
Arabica cultivated in areas classified as “suitable” in Brazil, the world’s top arabica producer, yields an average of 32.6 bags of 60 kg per hectare, while unsuitable areas show a production of around 28 bags per hectare, according to the Rabobank report.
However, while 81% of Brazil’s current harvest comes from suitable areas, this figure could drop to 62% by 2050, the report added, emphasizing that the production decline could be significant in absolute terms.
In Colombia, the share of arabica cultivated in suitable areas could decrease from 56% currently to 45%, while in Honduras, the percentage of arabica cultivated in suitable regions could sharply drop to only 12%, compared to the current 53%.
The Rabobank report noted that not all coffee-producing regions will be penalized by climate disruption. Ethiopia, in East Africa, is expected to see the share of its arabica crops grown on suitable land rise to 50%, up from the current 39%.
(Oliver Griffin, French version by Benoit Van Overstraeten)
