The communication war is in full swing, especially regarding the ballistic capabilities of the Iranian regime. According to the Israelis, these missiles cause very limited damage, while Tehran publishes videos every day to prove otherwise.
Iran is responding and making it known every day since the beginning of the war. Strikes against the Gulf countries and even in Israeli cities. However, according to Benjamin Netanyahu, the Iranian enemy is running out of steam. “We are taking measures to destroy ballistic missiles and nuclear programs. At present, I can announce that Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles,” declared the Israeli Prime Minister.
This announcement has been challenged by pro-Iran analysts. “Massive increase in Iranian attacks. The Israeli army is lying about the extent of the destruction of Iranian launchers and missiles,” it is said.
So, who is telling the truth? Will Iran soon run out of missiles? Missile production is one of the best-kept secrets of the Iranian army. To detect a trend, one must collect clues by examining images from amateurs or satellites. This fire behind that mountain, a topographic analysis reveals that it takes place in a major missile production facility. These small smoke points seen via satellite, another essential site in southern Iran.
Putting all this data together allows the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an institute linked to the US Department of Defense, to describe a trend. “Among the factories hit by the strikes is Shahroud. It is a factory where Iran planned to manufacture nuclear warheads and launch them from there. It is difficult to determine the overall effect these destructions will have on Iranian capabilities to produce missiles, but we can say that the program has deteriorated,” explains Kelly Campa, head of the Middle East team at ISW.
As a result, fewer Iranian strikes against Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates. In three weeks, Iran went from 137 missiles and 332 drones launched to 7 missiles and 16 drones. But Iran has a stockpile accumulated over decades, difficult to evaluate. “The production capacity, and therefore for the Iranians to launch massive salvos of missiles, especially ballistic missiles, has significantly decreased. However, there is a real residual capacity for strikes because the mix of means used has evolved. We are less towards missile salvos and all-missile, but rather towards a mix of drones and missiles, similar to what we see in Ukraine,” details Thibault Fouillet, a researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research.
Thus, Iranian missile production seems to have been significantly reduced. However, thanks to the use of drones, easy to produce, and hidden stocks, Iran maintains daily pressure on its neighbors with less intense but still dangerous strikes.
