Former Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, in office from 1998 to 2002 and then again from 2010, is in a difficult political situation. His opponent, Péter Magyar, a center-right European deputy, is leading in the polls and has exposed widespread corruption among the national-conservative and right-wing populist Fidesz-Hungarian Civic Union movement co-founder Viktor Orbán.
“Kleptocracy”: €28 billion in public contracts has been pocketed by associates of Viktor Orbán, according to an investigation by the Financial Times. The Financial Times explains, “Nearly 747 million euros are being spent to build a bridge over the Danube near the Hungary-Croatia-Serbia border by a company owned by László Szíjj, a business partner of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s oldest friend.” The Financial Times further details, “Szíjj, whose luxury yachts have hosted high government officials, owns companies that have won numerous contracts worth nearly €8 billion since Orbán’s election in 2010, significantly more than the €247 million in tenders awarded in the five years prior to Orbán’s election.” Szíjj is one of the 13 men close to the Hungarian prime minister whose companies have secured a significant portion of Hungarian public contracts since Orbán’s election. In total, they have received more than €28 billion in public contracts between 2010 and the end of 2025, alone or as part of consortiums, averaging €1.8 billion per year. In the five years prior to Orbán coming to power, they only won one-third of this annual average: €608 million. István János Tóth, an economist at the Budapest Corruption Research Center who studied this system for the European Commission, summarized in the Financial Times, “Orbán’s system is a kleptocracy. The elite siphons off public funds, taking advantage of the absence of the rule of law.” This sentiment is also echoed by Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz member, as reported by the Washington Post. At 44 years old, Magyar, who now leads the opposition party, Tisza, has a significant mobilization capacity during this campaign. According to the EU Observer, “Magyar is generally greeted by enthusiastic crowds, even in small towns once dominated by Fidesz, where hundreds of people gather for his events. He has also been welcomed by significant crowds in large cities where Fidesz previously enjoyed strong majorities.”
The campaign is intensifying in the final stretch before the legislative elections on April 12, with an emphasis on Ukraine and fears of war. Orbán is using artificial intelligence to play on these fears, as shown by a video circulating on social media suggesting that if Fidesz does not win the elections, Hungarian fathers will be sent to fight in Ukraine against Russia. This fear mongering is being criticized by Orbán’s opponent, Péter Magyar, who denounces it as a cynical and outrageous manipulation.
In an interview with Paul Gradvohl, professor at the University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, the focus is on how Orbán’s scaremongering tactics related to the war in Ukraine are failing with Hungarian voters. Orbán used to exploit the idea that Hungary could have access to cheaper energy through Russia, but this narrative has lost its effectiveness, leading to a shift in his strategy towards fearmongering about Ukrainian conflict.
The declining popularity of Viktor Orbán is a concern for Moscow and Washington, as both see him as a strategic political figure. The involvement of Russia and the Trump administration in the Hungarian legislative campaign is evident, with both backing Orbán due to their favorable partnership with him.
The potential victory of opposition leader Péter Magyar in the April 12 legislative elections could affect the influence of Russia and US conservatives within the European Union. Russian and US interventions in Hungary’s election campaign reflect their interest in ensuring Orbán’s continuity in power. If Orbán were to lose, it would disrupt their agenda within the EU.
