Israël continues its offensive against Hezbollah, widely considered greatly weakened after the 2024 war. Yet, close combat in southern Lebanon and rocket attacks on Israel demonstrate its resistance capabilities. The main victims are the hundreds of thousands of civilians forced into exile to avoid dying under Israeli bombs. Our correspondent in Lebanon, Arthur Sarradin, witnessed scenes showing that the Israeli army has initiated a true depopulation strategy in the southern part of the country.
This is something felt even in the density of Beirut for several weeks. Currently, in this conflict, the Israeli army has forced a fifth of the Lebanese population to flee. Now, all media in Lebanon are commenting on an imminent invasion by Israel. Some Israeli officials are even talking about annexation. The Israeli military plans to move 30 kilometers from the border to the Litani River. This has resulted in a humanitarian catastrophe due to forced displacements and constant bombing. Israeli forces have targeted over 200 rescuers and journalists, causing an environmental disaster in the southern region. Hezbollah is accused of precipitating a situation feared by many Lebanese in support of its Iranian sponsor. The army’s crackdown is gradually tightening with ongoing operations in Tel Aviv. War crimes such as those in Gaza have been charged by several NGOs, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International. The UN urges respect for the Geneva Convention.
Are these facts indicative of an Israeli depopulation strategy in Lebanon? Thomas Cluzel addressed this question to Daniel Meier, a professor at Sciences Po Grenoble specializing in Middle Eastern geopolitics and border studies.
It is indeed a strategy pursued since 2024. When the first massive, complete destructions of villages occurred, with over fifty villages literally wiped off the map, it was mainly for security reasons. However, now in the current conflict phase, a clear occupation trend is visible. This is to prevent local resistance, as erasing villages along the way avoids hiding places for those who resist and could harm Israeli soldiers.
Since the beginning of March, evacuations and arguments for creating a buffer zone due to an existential threat have been reminiscent of operations in Gaza. Do you find this comparison valid?
It is entirely valid. It echoes what was known as the Dahiya doctrine from 2006 invented by the Israeli army, which involved massive retaliation to any attack, including civilian infrastructure destruction. Although we are in Lebanon, a sovereign state, a more serious international response can be expected this time.
The situation in Lebanon is “extremely worrying” with a real risk of a humanitarian catastrophe affecting over a million displaced people across the country. The UN refugee agency warns of overcrowded sheltering facilities where people no longer feel safe.
The importance of the Southern Lebanon region for Israel is significant. Regarding water resources, why is this topic crucial in understanding the current situation?
Indeed, water resources are essential, especially for Israel, a country with chronic water deficits. The southern part of Lebanon, especially the Litani River and other water sources, holds great strategic value. During the previous occupation, Israel redirected water from the Litani River to the River Jordan.
The Lebanese situation is “extremely worrying,” with a “real” risk of a “humanitarian catastrophe,” according to the UN refugee agency. Concerned about over a million displaced persons in the country, the UNHCR highlights the overcrowded living conditions in shelters, mainly schools, as people no longer feel secure.
Israeli political leaders advocate for an occupation of Lebanon, but not military leaders due to the multiple fronts, including Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen to a lesser extent. The need for more fighters is openly acknowledged, emphasizing the strains faced by the army.
The Chief of Staff’s warning is severe, stating that the army is on the verge of collapse due to a lack of personnel in the midst of a war on multiple fronts. The need for more soldiers is emphasized, particularly in the extended Judea-Samaria region and along the Gaza border.
