A meeting was held yesterday afternoon around Sébastien Lecornu at Matignon, entitled “meeting of ministers on wartime economy”. This meeting followed the announcement, the day before, by the Prime Minister of the creation of a platform called “France munitions” tasked with meeting the needs of the French army and its allies. Sébastien Lecornu expects to invest 8.5 billion euros by 2030 in this platform, which will lead to an update of the military programming law in the coming weeks. The amounts are significant, the demands are contradictory, and the words are worrying.
First of all, what is surprising is this urgent budget increase that needs to be unblocked, especially after finalizing the 2026 budget painfully, with an imperative to control public spending. Just a few weeks ago, the budget tap had to be closed because the French economy was at risk. Today, not investing massively to rearm ourselves is what could endanger us.
Furthermore, the terms used for the meeting held at Matignon yesterday afternoon are quite striking. It was a meeting of ministers on “wartime economy”. This even startled the Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, who was quoted saying that France is not in a wartime economy. He emphasized that facing an increase in defense spending is very different.
And yet, according to the President of the Republic, we would have entered a “wartime economy”. Emmanuel Macron had made similar comments almost three years ago, in June 2022. He had outlined the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which had started a few months earlier in February 2022.
From this observation, the President has strived to continue increasing the defense budget, with an allocation of 57 billion euros this year, almost double the amount spent in 2017. The goal is to reach an annual budget of 75 billion euros by 2030. Does this budget correspond to a wartime economy? Not at all, as it is only 2.1% of the gross domestic product. Currently, Russia, in conflict with Ukraine, spends between 6 and 7% of its GDP on defense. France had similar military spending levels (between 6 and 7% of GDP) during the Algerian War in the 1950s, so there is still a significant gap.
The urgency to manufacture ammunition arises from the realization that in case of high-intensity conflict, the French army would deplete its stock of bullets, shells, and missiles in a matter of days. This underscores the real threat from Russia, as highlighted by various military experts.
In conclusion, while the current buildup corresponds to modernizing the armed forces and catching up on equipment, the country does not seem fully prepared for a potential conflict. The President’s use of the term “war economy” seems more symbolic than a reflection of reality. Just like when he declared war on COVID and the health crisis in March 2020.
