The 154th edition of the Grant Thornton – OpinionWay – Challenges Barometer, published on March 19, revealed a clear shift in the morale of Intermediate Size Companies (ETIs). While the year 2026 was expected to be stable, the increasing tensions in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February acted as a significant setback.
As spring 2026 unfolds, the leaders of Intermediate Size Companies (ETIs) transition into a marked caution. While morale still holds within the structures, pessimism is gaining ground in the face of a globally perceived volatile economy. An overview of a defensive entrepreneurial France.
A decline in morale, impacted by geopolitics In March, the confidence of executives in their own company stands at 71%, showing a 5-point decrease from the previous month. However, this average conceals a darker reality: for executives surveyed after the events in Iran at the end of February, this indicator drops to 66%. This level of distrust has not been observed since March 2022, during the invasion of Ukraine.
However, not all sectors are equally impacted. Services demonstrate notable resilience with 82% confidence, while the industry (67%) and commerce (69%) are more severely affected by energy cost volatility and threats to supply chains.
Structural pessimism about the French economy Concern is even more acute outside the company’s perimeter. Confidence in the French economy remains at an alarming level of 24%. In addition to the current situation, leaders point to a weighty political climate, particularly during municipal elections, highlighting a chronic lack of visibility on the country’s future economic directions.
The global economy, which appeared to be recovering, sees its confidence plummet: from 39% before February 28 to only 23% in March 2026. The barometer notes a surge in deep concern: the proportion of leaders declaring themselves “very worried” about the national economy quadrupled, rising from 5% to 24% in a few weeks.
Digital, a crisis shield In this context of a “besieged fortress,” investment strategies are tightening. However, digital and digital transformation (AI, cybersecurity) remain the absolute priority for 47% of ETI executives.
Conversely, there is disengagement or a pause on other strategic fronts. Only 21% of ETIs plan to increase their budgets in R&D (-5 points), with a significant increase in companies now considering themselves “not concerned” with this lever.
Similarly, development intentions at the international level are down 25% (-5 points), hampered by global trade tensions. Finally, the ecological transition (CSR) also experiences a slight downturn to 32% (-3 points).
Employment and external growth on “pause” On the social front, dynamism is waning. While 75% of executives plan to maintain their workforce, only 16% of ETIs plan to recruit, compared to 9% anticipating staff reductions. The net salaried employment balance, although positive (+7 points), reflects a conservatory management approach rather than a conquest phase.
External growth remains an option for 26% of companies, but only 10% of them consider it “very likely” to resort to an acquisition or merger soon. French ETIs seem to have chosen their camp: consolidating their technological achievements while waiting for better days on the international stage.
Samorya Wilson
