The war launched by the Americans followed by the Israelis against Iran temporarily overshadows the one caused by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022. Overall, the situation on the ground has evolved little since February 2023, even though the Russian nibbling continues slowly at the cost of heavy losses.
No decisive victory can be achieved by the two belligerents, both exhausted by more than four years of war. This war aims at the economic weakening of the opponent, trying to bring them to their knees.
However, the hope of shaking the morale of the opposing camp so that populations push their leaders to negotiate has long been gone. Slavic peoples have shown exceptional resilience throughout history.
Despite the efforts of various intelligence services, the leaders of both camps seem immovable for the time being, as no palace revolution seems to be imminent.
Exhausting Bombardments
Russia carried out one of the largest attacks in recent days, combining missiles and drones, mainly of the Geran-2 type. The attack occurred in two waves, with the first on the night of March 23 to 24 involving 392 drones simultaneously with the firing of 34 missiles. The second wave was triggered on the 24th, involving at least 550 drones.
Targets were hit in most regions of Ukraine, including Poltava, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Lviv, Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, Ternopil, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Cherkasy oblasts.
The Ukrainian air force claimed to have shot down 906 of the 948 drones and 25 of the 34 missiles launched, a figure that is verifiable. According to local authorities, these strikes resulted in seven deaths and dozens of injuries.
Several strikes hit the historic center of Lviv, a UNESCO World Heritage site. A 17th-century complex in the city center was damaged, according to the head of the regional military administration of Lviv.
Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha wrote on X, “Throughout the day, Russia terrorizes many cities across Ukraine with swarms of drones. Russia is doing exactly what the Iranian regime is doing in the Middle East but in the heart of Europe.”
Ukrainian authorities in the Izmail district reported that Russian forces attacked energy facilities in the Odessa region on the night of March 25-26. Negotiation efforts mediated by the United States between Kyiv and Moscow have been suspended since the start of the Middle East war. A new meeting between Kyiv negotiators and American envoys took place last weekend in the United States, but President Zelensky regretted after the meeting that “the situation around Iran” remains the “main focus of the American side.”
During the night of March 23-24, Ukraine was not idle. They launched nearly 400 drones at Russian targets, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, including the oil port of Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea. The neighboring oil terminal of Primorsk, hit on the morning of March 23, was still burning three days later.
The Ukrainians also claim to have damaged an Arctic-class patrol ship (project 23550) under construction at the Vyborg shipyard in the Leningrad Oblast.
In fact, Kyiv is disrupting economic relations between Tehran and Moscow to prevent arms deliveries to Russia. The Israelis are helping in this effort, aiming to prevent Iran from receiving supplies from Russia. The Israeli Air Force bombed the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea, where Russian ships could unload their goods.
Economic Impact
According to Reuters, at least 40% of Russia’s hydrocarbon export capacity has been halted due to Ukrainian bombings, including an important gas pipeline and the seizure of oil tankers. This problem is the most serious for oil exports in modern Russian history (the second largest exporter globally).
This situation hits Russia at a time when oil prices exceed $100 per barrel due to the war against Iran. It represents a significant loss for Moscow.
However, Russia is experiencing growth in its fertilizer exports to African and Asian countries, which need urea before the monsoon. Moscow is strengthening its position in global food markets.
(1) See: “Israeli Strikes on the Caspian” on March 20, 2026.
