War affects worldwide food production and food security, impacting not only farmers but also migrant workers,” said Maximo Torero to journalists at the UN headquarters in New York. “Timing is crucial right now; time is running out, and I believe we need to find a solution as quickly as possible,” he affirmed via video conference from Rome.
Since the war broke out on February 28th, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by 95%. Normally, 35% of the world’s crude oil—equivalent to 20 million barrels—as well as 30% of fertilizer trade and a fifth of liquefied natural gas transit through this strategic maritime corridor daily. As a result, farmers are facing a “double blow” due to the surge in fertilizer and fuel prices, two essential elements for agricultural production.
If a solution is found quickly, markets could stabilize within approximately three months. However, the situation would drastically change if the crisis were to persist. “The medium-term scenario of a three-month blockade would impact all farmers on the planet; we would then face various factors that could have a major impact, especially during the next agricultural season,” he explained, mentioning a decrease in crop yields and substitution phenomena. This situation could also lead to competition from the biofuel sector, especially if oil prices surpass $100 a barrel, which would be detrimental to consumers as prices would rise.
In the short term, priority should be given to countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, where rice harvests are underway. Torero pointed out that African nations dependent on imports are also vulnerable, even though “major exporters” like Argentina, Brazil, and the United States will also be affected. Regarding the Gulf region, Torero noted that food prices are “shooting up” in Iran. Despite the country supplying about 70% of its own food, the rest is imported. Additionally, “major food importers” like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will face difficulties as no ships are currently heading to the region. The Gulf countries also host millions of migrant workers from South Asia and East Africa; remittances to their home countries could decrease if the conflict prolongs.
To alleviate the crisis, Torero emphasized the need to find alternative maritime routes in the short term. “We must provide emergency balance of payments support to import-dependent nations before the planting seasons,” he added. In the medium term, he recommends countries diversify fertilizer import sources, enhance regional reserve sharing, and avoid export restrictions. In the long term, strengthening resilience will be essential. “We must give food systems the same strategic importance as energy and transport sectors, investing accordingly to minimize these shocks,” he concluded.
