The operation “Epic Fury” has been striking Iran since February 28, 2026, signaling the end of a certain deterrent idea as multiple armed conflicts escalate. From Ukraine to Gaza, from the Caucasus to the Middle East, a disruption has occurred in the security architecture that had prevented wars of conquest since 1945. Not a third world war like the previous two, but something potentially more insidious: a series of conflicts that no one seems able to contain.
Since the use of nuclear weapons in 1945, Western strategic thought has been structured around the concept that the existence of these “absolute weapons” makes any war of conquest between major powers unthinkable, safeguarding the territories of states possessing nuclear weapons. They could only engage indirectly in limited wars whose intensity would never reach the hyperbolic violence of the world wars.
However, this certainty has been eroded. By invading Ukraine, a country whose independence and security Russia had guaranteed under the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, Russia used its nuclear arsenal as a shield (avoiding direct involvement of the United States) to carry out a conventional war of conquest. This invasion has disrupted deterrent mechanisms, the full consequences of which may not have been fully diagnosed.
The landscape of possibilities under the nuclear umbrella in which warfare can unfold without triggering its collapse has significantly expanded. The war in Ukraine demonstrated that a high-intensity conventional conflict with explicit territorial annexation objectives could occur without either side resorting to nuclear threats.
The concept of the nuclear “threshold,” formulated in 1960, assumed a precise line beyond which nuclear war was inevitable. Since the war in Ukraine, this notion can no longer be strictly understood. In actuality, behaviors conform to more complex mechanisms, creating a zone of uncertainty where numerous hostile acts are possible without automatically escalating to the ultimate conflict.
In other words, a rise is observed in the threshold beyond which the actions of certain actors become intolerable. This rise provides an opportunity for “revisionist powers” to exploit the situation for their benefit by attempting to alter the international system’s rules.
For example, by using force to annex new territories, disregarding the United Nations’ cardinal principle of the inviolability of borders. This principle underlines that borders cannot be altered by force; any adjustments must adhere to pre-existing administrative boundaries. This principle had been largely respected for seventy years, except for a few exceptions (Tibet’s annexation by China in 1950, Kashmir, the Korean Peninsula, Israeli-Arab wars, Northern Cyprus).
The return of wars of conquest is reflected in the significant disruptions caused by nuclear powers themselves. Russia tried to subjugate Ukraine through a lightning offensive to formally annex five provinces, resulting in a prolonged attritional war with lasting consequences for European order. Israel, a undeclared nuclear power, responded to Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, with unprecedented military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, against the Houthis in Yemen, and finally, against Iran under its doctrine of “disproportionate response.” Furthermore, the United States, far from being a passive observer in the system’s deregulation, has become one of its instigators, launching operations in Iran without UN mandate or consulting Congress, openly threatening NATO members and undermining the institutions it once helped build, risking instability.
Additionally, other conflicts unrelated to nuclear arsenals, such as Azerbaijan’s offensive on Armenia, the wars between Cambodia and Thailand, India and Pakistan, or Pakistan and Afghanistan, indicate that the surge in local conflicts is not a coincidence but a significant trend alongside decades of insurgency struggles.
Ultimately, the article outlines the potential risks of uncontrolled conflicts multiplying globally, highlighting the challenges faced by current power structures to effectively manage and regulate escalating tensions to prevent potential catastrophic scenarios.
