Energetic volatility, geopolitical tensions, and transition are reshaping commodity markets and risk management.
As Brent surpasses $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 and raw material markets show increasing fragility, successive geopolitical shocks, global economic slowdown, and reconfiguration of trade flows are leading to a lasting transformation of the markets.
At the core of these changes, three dominant dynamics emerge. The first involves geopolitical fragmentation. The Sino-American rivalry, tensions in the Middle East or Ukraine, and the emergence of autonomous economic blocs are disrupting traditional supply routes. Actors are adapting to a multitude of regulations, sanctions, and logistical constraints. Energy exchanges are being reshaped, regional arbitrages are becoming essential again, strengthening the strategic dimension of resource access.
This fragility materialized at the end of February 2026, when American-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered a series of reprisals, leading to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic corridor, through which about 20% of global oil consumption and a significant portion of LNG transit, had never been physically blocked before. Brent reached $119.50, its highest level since 2022. In response, the IEA decided to release 400 million barrels from global strategic reserves. In this context, banks play an essential role in supporting clients in risk management and financing alternative supply chains.
Raw materials are at the heart of a global system where volatility, geopolitical tensions, and energy transition intertwine.
The second dynamic is macroeconomic. After a period of inflation and monetary tightening, global growth remains uneven. Demand for raw materials is positive but uneven: dynamic in energy transition, weakened in heavy industry. Rising oil prices weigh on importing countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which represent about 75% of oil exports and 59% of LNG exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing inflationary pressures and economic slowdown. Faced with currency volatility and margin pressures, banks function as providers of liquidity and financing to help companies preserve working capital and secure cash flow needs.
The third dynamic involves the structural transformation of markets. Needs related to decarbonization, strategic metals, LNG, biofuels coexist with a persistent demand for hydrocarbons. This ambivalence creates trading opportunities but strengthens risk management, capital management, and data requirements. Resilient companies now view risk as a strategic resource.
The current crisis underscores the reality of global energy security. Historically, coordinated stock releases have been used: 1991 (Gulf War), 2005 (Hurricane Katrina), 2011 (Libyan Civil War), 2022 (Ukraine invasion). In this context, the aim was to mitigate a potential supply loss, not a physical closure of a major strait. The use of reserves reflects the severity of current tensions.
Raw materials are at the heart of a global system where volatility, geopolitical tensions, and energy transition intertwine. The resilience of actors will depend on their ability to navigate in an environment where stability is no longer the norm, securing their supplies, and fully integrating geopolitical-energy risks into their strategic decisions.
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is the first in history to involve a physical blockade of a major energy corridor. It invalidates crisis management models based on historical precedents and forces organizations to reassess their fundamental assumptions about supply chain resilience.
