The world, despite appearances, is remarkably coherent. The extraordinary interdependence of production processes, climate issues, and geopolitical balances is evident at every moment, especially in the relationship between oil crises and the organization of our cities. Understanding this is understanding both our vulnerabilities and what could save us.
The Iranian crisis, which has already led to a significant increase in oil prices (and it’s not over), is just a repetition of a regular mechanism: it happened in 1973, 1979, 1990, 2003, and 2011. Each time, a geopolitical crisis leads to a rise in oil prices; each time, in consumer countries, people complain, protest, and receive state aid (from taxpayers) to cushion the impact. And then they forget until the next time.
However, not much has been done to seriously get rid of these fossil fuels: Despite the spectacular growth of renewables (solar energy has doubled in five years), fossil fuels still account for 86.6% of the world’s primary energy consumption and cover two-thirds of the global demand growth, leading to a new historical CO2 emissions record. Everything has been done to shield consumers from it. Subsidies worldwide to fossil fuels reach $7 trillion (over $1 trillion in direct subsidies), which is 7% of global GDP, more than annual global education spending. Therefore, we massively subsidize what is killing us on a global scale.
While targeted and temporary public assistance is necessary for a significant portion of the rural population with modest incomes to transition to heat pumps, electric vehicles, and decarbonized public transportation, cities must move much faster. They host over half the global population, generate around 80% of the global GDP, are responsible for over 70% of global CO2 emissions (mainly for heating and mobility), and could entirely switch to renewable energy sources.
Hence, to stop suffering from the inevitable rise in oil and gas prices, we must move away from them. Acknowledging that, just like the rise in tobacco prices reduced consumption, the rise in oil prices is good news as it should steer consumers towards electric alternatives and compel the most astute oil-producing countries, following Saudi Arabia’s example, to diversify their revenue sources.
This is not a utopia; yielding to oil demagoguery is not inevitable. Some cities demonstrate that this radical shift is not only possible but economically viable. Copenhagen, for instance, boasts the world’s most efficient urban heating network, providing 98% of the city’s homes with residual heat from cogeneration plants and waste incineration facilities. Half of its residents and those in the suburbs travel by bicycle daily due to dedicated cycling highways connecting suburbs with the city center. Electric buses and taxis have become the norm.
Moreover, not depending on the infinite ramifications of the next oil crisis means promoting an economy based on sustainable energy, local food, and unprocessed products, especially in cities.
Therefore, every serious candidate in a municipal election should commit to the following seven pledges from today onwards:
– Massively develop urban heat networks powered by renewables. – Build necessary bicycle and electric public transportation infrastructures throughout the metropolitan area. – Restrict city centers to zero-emission vehicles only. – Redirect fossil fuel subsidies to energy transition incentives and support vulnerable households. – Increase the use of bio-based materials in construction. – Adopt climate-friendly urban planning integrating energy-efficient building designs, green roofs, cooling systems, and rainwater management. – Maintain constant democratic pressure for national governments to stop subsidizing what harms us and fund what can save us.
And in case the worst happens, meaning if a local conflict escalates into a global conflict, it would be wise to have reduced our dependence on what harms us and implemented what can protect us from the madness of others.
