By Dr. Mohamed Chtatou
Introduction
On February 28, 2026, in a joint military operation, the United States and Israel bombed several major cities in Iran. From the Israeli side, the operation was named “Roaring Lion,” and from the American side, “Epic Fury.” Iran retaliated on the same day with Operation Honest Promise 4. Within hours, the supreme Iranian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the attack. For the first time since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, an open and direct war erupted between Israel, the United States, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Middle East, already destabilized by years of accumulated tensions, is entering a new era with uncertain contours.
This war did not arise out of nothing. It is part of a long escalation sequence dating back to the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, followed by exchanges of strikes in 2024, culminating in the Twelve-Day War between Israel, the United States, and Iran from June 13 to June 24, 2025. The American operation “Midnight Hammer,” targeting Iranian nuclear sites in Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, further escalated tensions. Each stage has shifted the balance, undermined restraint mechanisms, and reduced diplomatic space, leading to the perception of an inevitable direct confrontation.
The central question posed by this essay is the historical and geopolitical significance of this conflict: does the war against Iran mark the beginning of a new Middle East? The central hypothesis is that this conflict initiates a triple rupture—strategic, political, and normative—that will significantly reshape the regional order. To address this question, this essay will analyze the dynamics that led to the war (I), examine ongoing transformations in the region (II), explore implications for the international order and uncertainties about the future (III), and update the analysis in light of the first nineteen days of the conflict (IV and V).
I. From “Regional Cold War” to Open Confrontation: The Dynamics of a Shift
1.1 A Long-standing Structural Hostility of Forty-Five Years
The Iranian-Israeli antagonism predates recent events. Since seizing power, the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran have called for the destruction of the State of Israel. Shortly after the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Khomeini referred to Israel as the “little Satan,” a “cancerous tumor” that must be “wiped off the map.” This hostility has long been expressed indirectly through Iranian support for non-state actors—the Lebanese Hezbollah, Palestinian Hamas, Iraqi Shiite militias, Yemeni Houthis—forming what the Iranian doctrine terms the “axis of resistance.” This proxy architecture allowed Tehran to project power without direct exposure to pushback and allowed Israel to strike back without triggering total war.
Iran seeks to extend its political and military influence in the region, while Israel aims to limit this influence, especially in the face of what it considers a major threat in Iran’s nuclear program. Even without direct war for a long time, the two states have clashed through allies, covert operations, and diplomatic tensions. Since the early 2000s, Israel has waged a shadow war against Iran’s program—assassinations of scientists, cyberattacks, sabotage—while the United States alternated economic sanctions and diplomatic negotiations, including the Vienna Agreement of 2015 (JCPOA), from which the American withdrawal under Trump in 2018 led Tehran to accelerate its uranium enrichment.
These objectives reveal deep internal tensions. Destroying the nuclear program is one thing—doubts remain about the capabilities still available in Iran’s underground arsenal. Overthrowing a forty-six-year-old regime with developed resistance structures, succession, and decentralized command structures is another challenge. Iran’s swift response to the attacks indicates an ultra-redundant continuity plan in place: multiple successions, pre-authorized strikes, and a decentralized command chain in case of regime decapitation. The Assembly of Experts convenes to elect a new supreme leader following Khamenei’s death. The regime is more than one man.
II. Ongoing Transformations: Towards a Recomposition of the Regional Order
2.1 The Disintegration of the Iranian Proxy Architecture
The primary structural transformation involves the resistance axis. Even before the 2026 strikes, this axis had suffered considerable losses. Israeli strikes on Hezbollah had resulted in 850 deaths in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza was decimated. The Houthis seemed to abide by their May
