Because the horizon remains extremely uncertain in the Middle East, concern has once again spread to the markets this morning. Asian and European stock markets have fallen back into the red. Crude oil prices continue to soar. The price of European gas has also skyrocketed by 35%. The ongoing paralysis of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz is to blame, but not only that, as in retaliation for yesterday’s Israeli attack on a massive Iranian gas field, the largest known reserve in the world simultaneously serving as the main jewel of the entire energy industry of the Islamic Republic, Qatar (the world’s second largest exporter of liquefied natural gas) reported this morning significant damages by Iranian missiles on its largest LNG plant. And that’s not all, as at dawn, a drone attack also hit two of the largest refineries of the national oil company in Kuwait.
Yesterday’s attack on an Iranian natural gas field is surprising for several reasons. Firstly, because this field is also operated by Qatar, as previously noted. Furthermore, until now, the United States and Israel had refrained from targeting Iranian energy production installations in the Gulf. And in fact, while Washington confirmed that this attack was carried out by Israel, the White House claims it was not informed. Regardless, this has not stopped Donald Trump from once again threatening to target and destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure.
While the conflict is currently increasingly focused on the energy front, Iran yesterday was also marked by the assassination of a major figure: the Minister of Intelligence, the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, who had been elected president of the Islamic Republic. This is further evidence of the unwavering determination of the Americans and especially the Israelis to bring down the regime in Tehran. Israel also claims that the series of eliminations of Iranian leaders will not stop. However, pending a possible breakdown of the mullahs’ power, Israeli-American bombardments continue to hit residential areas, thus paralyzing the entire country’s economy.
It is clear how this aggressive war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran currently threatens to plunge the entire region, and even beyond, into disaster. This morning, President Emmanuel Macron proposed a “moratorium” on strikes against civil infrastructure (especially energy and water infrastructure) in the Middle East. “Civilian populations and their essential needs, as well as the security of energy supplies, must be preserved from military escalation,” wrote the head of state. This may also be a way to further demonstrate the Europeans’ refusal to get involved in Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East. It is expected that this issue will be at the center of the EU leaders’ summit in Brussels today.
And as the political and economic debate in the United States is dominated by the war in Iran, President Donald Trump seems to be turning to Cuba for distraction. The island now appears to be a potential target where victory would be easier to achieve. Under pressure from the American administration, which has not only blocked oil shipments to the island but now threatens to “take” Cuba (without specifying exactly what this verb means), the communist regime is trying to survive today, caught between two pressures: one urging it to sit at the negotiating table with its worst enemy, and the other being the daily pressure from popular protests against an increasingly precarious and now unbearable life.
The participants in the Winter Olympics 2030 in France are coming together today to revive an organizing committee, burdened by months of crisis. Or at least attempting to. The various parties will meet in Lyon to possibly not achieve much in reality. The ongoing stagnation and lack of progress in the project, now four years away from the start, continues.
