Philippe Rouby, president of the association of alumni from Sciences Po in the Hautes-Pyrénées, gives his analysis of the tensions in the Middle East and their possible impact on the local economy.
The Pyrénées Week: How do you analyze the current war in the Middle East? Philippe Rouby: We often tend to look at this conflict only on a regional scale. Of course, local dynamics are important. But if we take a step back, we see that this war is part of a broader transformation of the international system. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has held a dominant position. Today, this position is gradually being challenged by the rise of China. In this context, some regions become places where rivalries between major powers are projected. The Middle East is clearly one of them. The region remains strategic because of its energy resources and its position between Europe, Asia, and Africa.
You mention the Thucydides Trap theory. Can you explain? This is an idea that comes from the Greek historian Thucydides. He explained that the Peloponnesian War broke out because the rise of Athens had worried Sparta, the dominant power of the time. Today, some analysts use this idea to talk about the relationship between the United States and China. China is progressing rapidly in economic, technological, and military terms, while the United States remains the top global power. In this kind of situation, tensions tend to increase. The established power seeks to maintain its place, while the emerging power wants to assert itself. This does not mean that conflict is inevitable, but the balance becomes more fragile.
Does the situation in Venezuela fit into this logic? Yes, in part. Venezuela shows how the rivalry between major powers can manifest in certain regional crises. For several years, China has been getting closer to Venezuela, especially in the oil sector. Beijing has granted significant loans and receives oil in exchange. For the United States, seeing China strengthen its influence in Latin America is a strategic issue. The crisis in Venezuela is explained primarily by internal factors, but it also fits into this broader rivalry.
Where does Israel stand in this regional balance? Israel remains a major ally of the United States in the Middle East. The two countries cooperate closely in military, technological, and security aspects. For Israeli leaders, national security remains the priority, especially in the face of Iran. They believe that Iran supports several hostile movements to Israel, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, an organization close to Iran and part of the Shiite current. In this perspective, Israel believes it must defend itself in a region that it considers particularly hostile.
Is the Iranian nuclear risk really alarming? Yes, it is an important issue. Iran now possesses advanced nuclear capabilities and holds high levels of enriched uranium. This does not mean that it already has a nuclear weapon or has decided to make one. But the country is approaching the technical threshold that would allow it to do so. However, there is no immediate danger. According to an article in Le Monde, US intelligence services recently estimated that Iran was not about to deploy a nuclear weapon. If Iran became a nuclear power, the balance in the Middle East would be profoundly altered and could encourage other countries in the region to follow suit.
What is Donald Trump’s position on the Iranian regime? Donald Trump’s position is quite direct. His goal is to prevent Iran from accessing nuclear weapons. But there is also an energy issue. Today, China has become the main buyer of Iranian oil, with over a million barrels per day. In this context, American pressure on Iran also indirectly targets these energy flows that feed the Chinese economy. Trump does not seem to be seeking dialogue with the regime of the mullahs. His strategy mainly relies on economic pressure.
Are we witnessing a reshaping of the global order? Yes, very likely. We are entering a period of transition. The rise of China, the return of rivalry between major powers, and tensions in several regions show that the international balance is changing. It is also important to remember that geopolitics is dynamic. Power relations change over time. We often forget that in the 16th century, Spain was the top global power and Portugal held the second place due to their major maritime routes. International balances are never fixed. Powers rise, decline, and the world system evolves.
Could this conflict have consequences for French and Hautes-Pyrénées businesses? Yes, even if these effects are often indirect. The first consequence concerns energy. Tensions in the Middle East can drive up oil or gas prices, which impacts transportation, industry, and agriculture. It is also important to look at the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage between Iran and Oman. A significant amount of global oil passes through there. OPEC recently increased production to stabilize markets, but if Iran disrupted traffic in that strait, oil and gas deliveries could be severely reduced. In a department like the Hautes-Pyrénées, this could affect several sectors. The industry, especially aerospace and metallurgy, is sensitive to energy costs and raw materials. Tourism could also be affected if transportation becomes more expensive or if the economy slows down. Even a region like the Hautes-Pyrénées is connected to the global economy. As the philosopher and political scientist Raymond Aron stated: “Peace is impossible, war is improbable.” In other words, despite tensions, states are aware of the consequences of a major conflict. And history shows that local economies often adapt to international crises.
