While investors’ attention was focused on interest rate trajectories, geopolitics regained its relevance. The direct escalation of conflict in the Middle East acted as a wake-up call, highlighting the vulnerability of risky assets in the face of international instability.
The CAC 40 ended this period with a marked decline, erasing some of its annual gains. This movement is not isolated: from Wall Street to Frankfurt, caution is the word. The “risk premium” has surged, leading to a shift towards safe-haven assets. Luxury and technology, sensitive to global uncertainties, have particularly suffered, while energy has acted as a shield.
The American economy in turbulent waters
In addition to this geopolitical tension, a warning signal has come from across the Atlantic. The employment figures released this Friday have dampened hopes of resilience: the American economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, contrary to expectations of growth. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%.
Outlook: between resilience and vigilance
Looking ahead, the market will monitor two major signals: the security of maritime routes (Strait of Hormuz) and the consumption capacity of American households in the face of the oil shock. In the short term, volatility will remain the norm.
In this context, selectivity is key. Prioritize assets with strong pricing power and solid balance sheets, capable of navigating through this foggy period without structural damage.
