During the first session of the joint Morocco-Kenya cooperation commission last Thursday, Nairobi’s explicit support for the Moroccan sovereignty initiative brought to light profound geopolitical shifts. These changes, reshaping the balance of power within the African Union, were also evident in the limited presence of a few state representatives—led by South Africa and Mozambique—during the so-called “Republic anniversary” celebrations in the Tindouf camps.
Benefitting from this momentum, the Kingdom of Morocco is strengthening its presence in African affairs and expanding its diplomatic outreach. This shift, affecting countries once aligned with the hostile Algiers-Pretoria axis, relegates the separatist thesis to a state of unparalleled isolation. Many African nations are now revising their foreign policies, embracing the logic of mutual interests, and shedding the ideological burdens that previously hindered partnerships with a major player like Morocco.
Analyzing this new dynamic, strategic affairs researcher Hicham Moataded sees a clear indicator of a profound restructuring of continental diplomacy. According to him, “the Western Sahara conflict is no longer viewed through a traditional ideological lens tied to the legacy of liberation movements, and is instead seen in a pragmatic perspective based on stability, investment, and repositioning within international partnership networks.”
Far from being an isolated act, Kenya’s decision, as a significant regional power in East Africa, is part of a broader continental movement. The researcher points out that this nation exemplifies “a gradual transition from historical legitimacy logic to strategic relevance logic, where the autonomy initiative is perceived as a functional and implementable solution, rather than just a political proposition among multiple options.”
This reorientation is part of a comprehensive strategy driven by Rabat, which pragmatically reshapes alliances through economic and security levers. According to the expert, this approach has naturally led to “a progressive dismantling of the traditional bloc supporting the separatist thesis within the African Union,” especially as African countries, particularly those grappling with crises, “are now inclined to adopt realistic approaches that ensure regional stability and open up partnership prospects, instead of engaging in long-term conflicts with high political and economic costs.”
On the other hand, the symbolic significance of receiving Brahim Ghali with limited delegations reflects a harsh diplomatic reality. Beyond protocol, this event reflects “an evident contraction in diplomatic support for the Front at the African level, with support now focusing on a limited number of countries acting in line with traditional approaches dating back to the Cold War era.” It also highlights “the challenge of expanding this support in light of geopolitical and economic changes prompting many countries to evaluate their positions in line with their national interests.”
As a result, the gap widens between Morocco’s offensive and Polisario’s stagnation. This contrast signifies “the shift from a phase of narrative balance in the conflict to a phase of imbalance in the influence dynamics.” Ultimately, the analyst believes that “the limited representation in the Front’s activities indicates a progressive erosion of its ability to maintain a broad support network, reinforcing the hypothesis that the settlement process is increasingly focusing on enshrining the autonomy initiative as a central option in the political solution architecture to the conflict.”
Similarly, international relations researcher Jaouad El Kasmi observes a radical shift in Africa’s overall approach to this issue. He notes that “many countries are moving from past dependencies and Cold War-era ideological legacies to embracing political realism based on economic interests, development, and respect for states’ sovereignty”—a framework in which Kenya’s recent decision makes perfect sense.
Building on his analysis, the expert highlights Nairobi’s institutional weight on the continent. Therefore, its alignment with Moroccan territorial integrity sends a strong signal since “Nairobi now understands that its future lies in food security, development, and investments.” In this regard, “Morocco, through the power of the Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP) and its global role in this field, will help overcome many obstacles in terms of food security.”
The magnitude of this turnaround is even more striking considering Kenya’s past alignment with Algiers. By now joining the ranks of Rwanda or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the country solidifies “the collapse of diplomatic support that the Front has long relied on in this region.”
To demonstrate this definitive break, the recent Polisario Front celebrations serve as a case study. The exclusive presence of South African and Mozambican representatives holds crucial importance, as “just as attendances are interpreted, absences are also analyzed with equal importance.” According to El Kasmi, the failure of Algiers and Polisario to mobilize their former allies constitutes “a failure and an explicit declaration of the end of the illusion,” proving that “African countries no longer want to challenge Morocco, a strong partner in many fields, for an entity that does not exist in the United Nations.”
In conclusion, this diplomatic tightening overwhelmingly shows “the lack of African depth in the Polisario, which has become a mere functional entity serving the agenda of the Algero-South African axis, perceiving Morocco’s rise as a threat to its continental leadership.” In the researcher’s view, this dynamic ultimately represents “a historical course correction for the African Union and serves as a path to turn the page on an entity born in the Cold War context, now isolated and finding support only from its patron, Algeria, and those who share its hostility towards Morocco.”
