The IMF considers revising down its global growth forecasts.

Speaking at the annual spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C. on April 9, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva emphasized that even in the most optimistic scenario, it is unlikely that the world will return to its pre-conflict state. Rising energy costs, damaged infrastructure, disrupted supply chains, and declining market confidence will result in slower growth than expected.

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which erupted at the end of February, plunged the Middle East into violence, disrupted global supply chains, and drove up oil prices after Iran nearly blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route for global energy transport. The IMF predicts a significant increase in emergency financial assistance needs for affected countries, initially estimated between $20 and $50 billion. Additionally, the organization may need to provide up to $50 billion in assistance to vulnerable economies, as the supply chain and transportation crisis is expected to push at least 45 million people into food insecurity.

The IMF also anticipates a global inflation revision due to the impact of energy price shocks and disruptions in international trade. According to a joint statement by the IMF, World Bank, and World Food Program (WFP), the sharp rise in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, combined with supply difficulties, will inevitably lead to higher food prices. The World Bank estimates that the Middle East is experiencing severe and immediate economic losses. Excluding Iran, regional economic growth is expected to reach only 1.8% this year, a sharp drop of 2.4 percentage points from pre-conflict levels.

Furthermore, the IMF has also warned about the consequences of an asymmetric crisis, where poor energy-importing countries are much harder hit than other economies. Countries at the end of the supply chain, such as the Pacific island states, face serious fuel shortages. In this context, the IMF has urged countries to coordinate their policies to mitigate the impact of the conflict, avoiding unilateral measures such as export controls or price controls, which could worsen the situation. It has also advised central banks to be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation risks becoming uncontrollable, even if it risks further slowing growth.

According to IMF reports, the production of war-torn countries could drop by 3% in the first year and continue to decline in the following years. Low-income countries are more exposed to food insecurity and need increased international support in a context of reduced global aid.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/imf-can-nhac-ha-du-bao-tang-truong-toan-cau-20260410095128930.htm