The Sapiens Institute publishes an analysis on the risks of a new term for Donald Trump and urges Europe to prepare urgently.
In a tense global geopolitical context, the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House in January 2025 is a major source of concern for European chancelleries. The Sapiens Institute, a French think tank specializing in economic and social issues, publishes an analysis entitled “Trump vs Europe: How to prepare for the shock?”. Authored by expert Erwan Le Noan, the document makes a sobering assessment: the European Union is not ready to face the consequences of a new Trump presidency, which would be centered around an even more assertive “America First” doctrine. The report warns of a triple shock, both commercial, strategic, and diplomatic, which could deeply destabilize the Old Continent.
A triple commercial, strategic, and diplomatic shock
The first aspect of the threat is economic. The report anticipates a significant protectionist offensive, with the possible introduction of universal tariffs of at least 10% on all imports to the United States, possibly reaching 60% for Chinese products. Such a measure would send shockwaves through European economies heavily reliant on exports, with Germany at the forefront. This disruption of global trade flows would force Europe to rethink its supply chains and its own trade policy in a much more conflictual international environment.
Strategically, the concerns are even more acute. Erwan Le Noan highlights Donald Trump’s mistrust of NATO, which he has described as obsolete on several occasions. Challenging Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which guarantees collective defense of the members, is no longer off the table. This American disengagement would leave Europe alone facing its security responsibilities, especially on its eastern flank. The question of support for Ukraine would then become solely European, with all the budgetary and industrial implications that entails. The report underscores that Europe’s strategic dependence on Washington is now its greatest vulnerability.
An overdue and inadequate awareness
Faced with these existential threats, the analysis from the Sapiens Institute points to a “belated and insufficient awareness” among European leaders. Despite some rhetorical progress on the need for strategic autonomy, actions are lagging behind. Defense budgets, while increasing in some countries, remain generally insufficient to fill the void left by an American withdrawal. “Europe has long been blind to its strategic dependence. The wake-up call risks being brutal if we do not now build the pillars of our own sovereignty,” Erwan Le Noan analyzes in the note. The author criticizes a form of naivety that has prevailed for too long, hoping for a return to normal transatlantic relations that may never happen.
The urgent need to build European sovereignty
The report does not just offer an alarmist diagnosis; it also proposes several paths to allow Europe to “break free.” The first urgency is to massively strengthen the European defense industry to ensure autonomous production capacity in armaments and ammunition. This involves a coordinated increase in military spending and common equipment programs. Economically, the European Union must equip itself with more active and robust tools of commercial policy to respond to American protectionism and secure its supplies of critical raw materials and key technologies. In conclusion, the Sapiens Institute calls for a real political awakening to transform the concept of European sovereignty into a tangible reality. According to the authors, the time for hesitation is over: Europe must prepare now for the shock, or face lasting strategic marginalization on the global stage.
