TRIBUNE

PARIS – Apr 9, 2026 By Hagay Sobol

Iran, a new pause before the resumption of hostilities or the first chapter of a new world order that will significantly mark the decline of Europe?

After weeks of unprecedented military intensity, the ceasefire on April 8, 2026, sponsored by the triumvirate of Turkey-Pakistan-Egypt, marks not the end of a conflict but the beginning of an era of major uncertainties. Between facade triumphalism and strategic denial, the autopsy of a military victory that is still searching for its political meaning.

The conflict that has just paused, for a duration of two weeks, is not just a “setback” as stated by European chancelleries, but the bloody epilogue of 47 years of denial in the face of the Shiite theocracy’s hegemonic policy.

The display of power by Donald Trump. Limited by the midterm election timeline and the lack of allied support, the American president used Iran as a laboratory of US power. Although he did not topple the regime, he sent a clear message to Moscow and Beijing: America can strike hard, fast, and without getting bogged down. But due to the lack of a “state-building” strategy, he leaves behind a wounded but still standing Iran.

Benjamin Netanyahu, from a regional superpower to a geopolitical keystone? Israel emerges from this conflict with a new status. The projection of the Israel Defense Forces to 1,800 km and the effectiveness of the Arrow system – now a cornerstone of the European SkyShield initiative – transform the Jewish state into a guarantor of regional security and a privileged partner of the USA. However, the military gain struggles to translate into political dividends in the face of still ambivalent neighbors.

The mullahs’ Iran or a resilient paper tiger. The “mosaic defense” has shattered, but the regime survives. The ideology remains intact, and without strict control mechanisms, the period of calm will only serve to reorganize and rearm, a prelude to a potential future resumption of hostilities.

“L’appeasement” is not a policy, it is a credit surrender. Today, everyone is intoxicated with their own narrative: Trump “creates reality through speech” to stabilize oil markets, while Tehran sells a “divine victory” to mask its ruins. Meanwhile, Europe pleads “not our war,” negotiating discreetly for its hostages or the passage of its ships, signing its own strategic bankruptcy. The price of European passivity will be heavy: weakening of NATO, economic marginalization, increased energy dependence, exclusion from future reconstruction markets in favor of the ceasefire architects (Turkey, Pakistan).

The geopolitical vice and the sacrifice of Suez. The ceasefire on April 8, 2026, sketches a new map of the Middle East. The Gulf, once a dominant force due to its financial weight, is now a security client of Israel. Meanwhile, the shift in logistical and energy flows (pipeline versus canal) reshuffles the deck between Egypt and the Saudi-Israeli bloc, not excluding the less secure variant towards Turkey.

To read also: Analysis – Towards an official visit of Mohammed VI to Paris: Rabat and Paris.

In the end, a scenario a la Milosevic? The current ceasefire is a trap in case of a status quo. If we let the regime rise from its ashes, rebuild its nuclear and ballistic capabilities under the guise of a fake reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (toll rights), everything will have been in vain. Iran will become a global threat that puts Europe and the USA within reach of its missiles. But above all, it will be a moral failure: the abandonment of the Iranian people who hoped to see their chains fall under the onslaught of the allies.

The hope now lies in the “Serbian model”. Slobodan Milosevic did not fall under NATO bombs in 1999 but due to the structural weakening caused by war. Iran in 2026 is depleted, its repressive apparatus is cracking. The truce must not be a facade for a return to the previous situation but a long period of diplomatic and economic suffocation. If the West succumbs once again to “magical thinking,” the next awakening will be nuclear!