90 minutes before Donald Trump’s ultimatum expired, miraculous Pakistani mediation allowed the worst to be avoided. Two weeks of ceasefire to negotiate an agreement, during which the Strait of Hormuz should be freed.
Each party claims victory, with supporting arguments. However, this agreement is too fragile to truly be considered the beginning of the end of this major conflict. Even though the world can only be relieved that the reckless escalation planned by Donald Trump has been avoided, with its tragic consequences.
The American president managed to avoid two pitfalls: backing down on this ultimatum without gaining anything, and moving forward without a real strategy. He was seeking a way out and may have found it, but without achieving the expected success. Indeed, Donald Trump’s strategy was based on three biased bets, influenced by the Israeli vision sold to him by Benjamin Netanyahu.
The first of these bets was to believe that an American ultimatum accompanied by threats of apocalypse would make the survivors of the current Iranian regime surrender.
Donald Trump will try to demonstrate that this is the case, but this interpretation does not withstand analysis. The regime is still present, even more radical with a new generation of Revolutionary Guards in charge; it frees the Strait of Hormuz but does not lose control of it; and finally, it does not commit at this stage to getting rid of the enriched uranium it possesses, which was one of the initial war goals.
Threatening to annihilate the Iranians, who see themselves as the descendants of the ancient Persia, was a mark of arrogance, not tactical genius. Regimes can change, but the Persian civilization will not disappear under the bombs.
It should not be underestimated, and this is Trump’s second lost bet, that in response to the threat of destruction of Iranian infrastructure, Tehran promised to bring the apocalypse to the region in return. Apparently, the thousands of bombings have not managed to eliminate the Iranian ability to respond.
The third bet was that the Iranian population would revolt once the war started: this did not happen, and the regime, battered but not destroyed, instead intensified repression during the bombings, deterring any protest.
As it has been said since the beginning of this war: the current Iranian leaders, who see themselves engaged in an existential battle they have been preparing for decades, will consider it a victory to ensure the survival of the regime, even if there are only ruins around them.
The upcoming phase will be challenging because Tehran knows this war is unpopular in the United States, and will negotiate knowing that no one wants the resumption of fighting. While everyone claims victory, the losers are known: it is the Iranian people who have gone through hell and still do not have the promised freedom.
