On April 5th, 2026 at 21:05, Donald Trump reiterated his ultimatum to Iran on social media. He demands the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This passage is a major concern due to the potential risks to the global economy.
Since the start of the war, all oil production facilities have been weakened, with refineries being bombed and fuel depots engulfed in flames throughout the Gulf region. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route, is paralyzed, with Iranian attacks targeting ships.
Currently, 670 vessels are blocked in the strait. Gulf countries had no choice but to drastically reduce their oil production, going from 26.7 million barrels per day to 15.2 million. All oil-producing countries are affected, with a 25% decrease for Saudi Arabia, a 55% decrease for the UAE, over 65% for Kuwait and Qatar, a 78% decrease for Iraq, and a complete halt in Bahrain. According to Homayoun Falakshahi, an oil analysis expert at Kpler, if the conflict continues for months, inflation and a global recession may occur.
The repercussions are already being felt worldwide. In Europe, including France, Italy, and Spain, fuel prices are soaring. Australia is facing its first shortages, while Asia, heavily dependent on Gulf oil, is suffocating. Thailand is experiencing long lines at gas stations, causing massive traffic jams. In India, endless lines of tuk-tuks are forming due to forced stops. The rise in prices is also prompting protests in the Philippines. In South Korea, the petrochemical industry is already experiencing a total shortage of garbage bags in a Seoul supermarket.
On the contrary, some countries like Russia are benefiting from the situation, especially with the partial lifting of sanctions allowing the country to export at high prices, providing funds for its war in Ukraine.
