Global milk production is expected to exceed one billion tons this year and continue to grow throughout the decade. “But these volumes may not be enough to meet global demand, which could outpace production growth,” explains economist Jean-Marc Chaumet (Cniel) in a note from the agricultural chambers published at the end of 2025.
Between 2025 and 2034, global dairy product consumption is projected to rise by 21%, according to the OECD and FAO, making it one of the fastest-growing food categories. This growth is driven by population growth – the global population is expected to reach 8.8 billion by 2035 – rising incomes in emerging countries, and changing dietary habits.
Fresh dairy products show the highest growth (+21%), followed by butter (+18%) and cheese (+10%). This expansion will be largely driven by developing countries with a 35% increase, compared to only +0.5% in developed countries.
Asia, the primary driver of this growth, cannot meet its domestic demand alone: its self-sufficiency rate in dairy products was only 92% in 2024 (86% for Africa), with a strong dependence on imports from Southeast Asian countries (99% for the Philippines).
And in the years to come, both Asia and Africa will continue to rely on imports to meet local demand for dairy products. Consumption is expected to outpace production in these regions, where climatic conditions do not always favor dairy farming.
Insufficient Supply in Major Exporting Regions
On a global scale, projections from major organizations are converging towards “unmet demand worldwide, due to insufficient supply in major exporting regions.” Rabobank anticipates a shortfall of 20 million tons between exportable supply and potential demand in 2035, while IFCN estimates global production to be 31 million tons lower than demand by 2040.
Thus, the economist asks: which dairy regions could see their supply grow enough to meet this demand? The most positive outlook comes from the United States, where Rabobank expects a 19 million ton increase in dairy production between 2023 and 2035.
The outlook is bleaker in New Zealand, where the effects of climate change and environmental requirements related to greenhouse gas emissions could lead to a 9% decline in production by 2035.
The future remains uncertain for South America: between institutional constraints on increasing dairy production and natural advantages – “land, water, grains, workforce, growing expertise” – production could either remain stable or increase.
France’s Advantages
As for France, although IFCN expects a decline of 1.7 million tons in dairy production between 2023 and 2030, Jean-Marc Chaumet suggests a more nuanced view. First, because the “environmental pressure” (constraints on nitrates, phosphates, ammonia, and greenhouse gas emissions) is less severe than in neighboring Northern European countries.
Also, because the “demographic challenge” in dairy farms could improve if the current rate of new installations is maintained: even though significant retirements are expected by 2030, “the share of those under forty could increase in the coming years.”
Another factor in favor of the dynamism of French production in the coming decade is the transformation of farms, with an increase in robot installations, growth in employment, and expansion of structures leading to “an increase in dairy intensity per cow since 2020.”
“Finally, French production can rely on domestic consumption which, despite inflation, has not decreased,” points out the economist. The volumes of dairy products consumed, measured in milk equivalents, are either stable or increasing, with retail sales of cheese and cream showing growth since 2019, and sales of ultra-fresh products rebounding in 2025.
