The Bitcoin Outperforms Since the War Against Iran
Bitcoin has outperformed since the war against Iran started a month ago, but it is unlikely that the bear market is over. Learn more about the analysis by Vincent Ganne on the situation.
Bitcoin Outperforms for 1 Month
What resilience! While most traders did not expect much from Bitcoin when military operations against Iran began on February 28th and considered it the best asset to short to profit from risk aversion, it has performed much better than the stock market and precious metals.
The relative performance of Bitcoin’s price compared to precious metals is remarkable; the latter have fallen in the stock market with a performance of -22% for silver and -12% for gold since February 28th.
The chart below shows the performance of a selection of financial assets since the close price on Friday, February 27th, and the price of Bitcoin has been stable for 1 month.
But This Resilience Is Not the End of the Cyclical Bear Market
The resistance of Bitcoin’s price and altcoins in general leads some analysts to think that the cyclical bear market of BTC may have already ended with the drop to $60,000 on February 26th.
Even though this idea is appealing, it is still unlikely at the current stage. One thing is certain, 2026 will see the final low point of the cyclical bear market, but whether in terms of time or price, there is probably still one last drawdown needed to come back massively to buying on BTC and alts.
If we continue to follow the teachings of the 4-year cycle, a final bottom established in February at $60,000 does not align:
- It is more towards the second half of 2026 that the final low point is expected, precisely between the months of August and October 2026
- In terms of drawdown from the all-time high, $60,000 is a bit high to match a final bear market price, as highlighted by several technical and on-chain analysis approaches.
Here are four approaches that advocate more for the $55,000 zone to later find the end of the Bitcoin bear market, which remains active as long as the market stays below the 200-day moving average.
- The Bitcoin CVDD, which is (by far) the most accurate on-chain indicator in bitcoin’s history to find the bottom of the cyclical bear market and is currently at $48,000
- The Bitcoin Realized Price, the average purchase price of BTC holders, currently around $54,000
- The power law, a mathematical approach to Bitcoin’s price evolution, with the “quantile model” indicating a final low point around $55,000
- And finally, the average production cost per bitcoin, highlighting the $50/60,000 zone for the final low point
Ultimately, it seems that it is more likely in the second half of 2026 and the $50,000 price range that will see the end of the cyclical bear market.
