The Paris Stock Exchange has continued its recovery, supported by a relative easing of the geopolitical context and reassuring monetary signals. According to press reports, the US executive branch would consider ending military operations against Iran, now favoring a diplomatic solution to restore circulation in the Strait of Hormuz. This prospect has fueled a renewed appetite for risk, while keeping oil prices stable despite continued strong disruptions in maritime traffic. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve struck a measured tone. Jerome Powell indicated that the institution had the necessary flexibility to assess the economic consequences of tensions in the Middle East without an immediate adjustment to its monetary policy. The Fed president also emphasized the strong anchoring of long-term inflation expectations, suggesting that premature tightening of financial conditions could undermine economic dynamics. These elements have led investors to revise their expectations, now dismissing the hypothesis of short-term monetary tightening. In this context, stock markets benefited from a more favorable environment at the close, with operators preferring to observe the evolution of geopolitical risk and its potential economic impact.
On the April future
Resistance levels: 7811 then 7825.5 and 7838.5, possibly 7865.5 then 7886 and 7903.5, or even 7927 then 7949.5 and 7979 or 8030.5, followed by 8053.5 and 8070.5, possibly 8109.5 then 8138.5 and 8159.5 or 8178.5 then 8192.5 and 8247, or 8270 then 8283.5 and 8341.5 and 8420.5.
Support levels: 7790.5 or 7746 and 7709, then 7685.5 or 7626, then 7606 and 7579 or 7477, or 7328.5 and 7200, possibly 7092.5 then 7466.5 and 7330 or 7164.
Intraday, the trend is bullish above 7838.5.
Graphically, the CAC 40 Future (see chart with 14-hour data) has preserved the lower limit of the trading range in which the index has been moving since March 23, defined between 7685.5 and 7886 points. This stabilization comes after reaching the chartist target from the long-term bullish channel at 7606 points, a level that provided solid technical support and favored short-term buyer returns. Breaking above the upper limit of this horizontal consolidation phase would confirm the ongoing recovery, with the first target being the intermediate resistance at 8053.5 points, then an extension to 8085 points, corresponding to the theoretical range target. Crossing this zone would reactivate the short-term bullish momentum towards the lower bound of the channel at 8228 points. Reintegrating this bullish structure would end the current corrective phase and pave the way for filling the continuation and break gaps, located respectively at 8391 and 8549.5 points.
Conversely, breaking the intraday alert at 7685.5 points would be an initial sign of the ongoing rebound losing momentum, with confirmation of invalidation under the intermediate support at 7477 points. Below this level, the index would enter a new retracement phase towards the neckline of the triple top turnaround pattern at 7092 points. As long as this pivotal level remains intact at the close, the long-term bias remains neutral. However, a break would lead to a pronounced return of the corrective movement, with a theoretical target of 5850 points, obtained by extending the height of the congestion zone.
In conclusion, we maintain our bullish speculative positions within the Dynamic portfolio and remain heavily invested in the Investor portfolio, favoring the scenario of a positive trend recovery. However, we remain vigilant and maintain a flexible approach, ready to quickly adjust our exposure in case of unfavorable technical signals.
