Donald Trump has made unpredictability his weapon. He communicates unusually often, more than any other head of state in the world: on his Truth Social network, in press statements several times a day. He monopolizes attention.
But it’s a double-edged sword. Speaking without saying anything cannot be a strategy when you are the president of the world’s leading power – especially in times of war.
When the White House announced yesterday that Trump would deliver a speech to the nation, no one knew what he was going to say; but the formal exercise was so unusual that it had to announce something, maybe even the end of the war in Iran.
Upon arrival, in 19 minutes, he only repeated that he would strike hard at Iran “for two or three weeks” to bring it back to “the stone age.” The price of oil, the number one barometer in these uncertain times, rose, the opposite of what the White House might have hoped for.
The President of the United States was expected to address at least two decisions: the timetable and terms for the end of the war, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for the global economy’s return to normalcy.
He was as vague as usual about the end of a war whose goals were no clearer in this speech than in his dozens of earlier statements, changing several times. He continues to claim, against all evidence, that the Iranian regime has changed: it may have been decapitated, but the system is still in place, as the Iranians know well.
Just yesterday, Trump claimed that the Iranian president had requested a ceasefire, but Tehran promptly denied it; the announcement is all the more misleading as the Iranian president does not have the power. The Revolutionary Guards are likely currently obeying only themselves. They have no reason to back down when they may feel that the Americans are desperately seeking a way out, and that, despite the bombs and destruction, they retain the initiative.
Donald Trump is even more frustrated as he asserted, not based on any evidence, that the Strait of Hormuz would be “naturally” reopened once the war was concluded. The risk, if the war were to end today, is instead that Iran would remain in control of the strait. A worse situation than before the war. Likewise on the nuclear issue, he has disappeared from speeches even though it was an urgent threat.
So we have a president who struggles to hide his frustration: against his European allies whom he threatens to leave NATO – but not a word on this explosive topic in this formal speech; frustration against a tougher and more resilient adversary than promised; frustration against the all-powerful but unable military to bend an opponent who does not play by the rules.
In “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” Andersen’s famous tale, there is only one child who says “the king is naked.” Here too, no one in Donald Trump’s circle dares to tell him that he is mired in a futile conflict. Everyone sees it, but he continues to say that everything is going according to plan: until when?
