In the journal Nature dated October 5, 2023, researchers from various disciplines joined forces to determine the distant future of the Earth. Their conclusion is this: in 250 million years, the continents will have drifted to the point of colliding with each other. They will then form a single large block, called Pangea Ultima.
This evolution will be slow but not peaceful: as the continents come closer to intersecting, they will trigger intense volcanic activity along their edges, releasing huge amounts of greenhouse gases. As a result, the Earth’s climate will drastically heat up, especially since the Sun’s activity will increase by 2.5%. Furthermore, the existence of a single supercontinent instead of several will cause immense deserts to form inland where no rain will ever fall again. In short – and to borrow the famous phrase from economist John Maynard Keynes – “In the long run, we are all dead”.
On a side note, this result humbles us by showing that the Earth’s very distant future does not depend on our actions, past, present, or future: all traces of our presence and its effects will eventually disappear from its surface. Pangea Ultima symbolizes both the complete collapse of politics and the total erasure of the effects of our presence on Earth. In Nature’s study, human activity is no longer part of the equation: only the intrinsic historicity of the Earth system, which began long before the emergence of the homo genus and will continue long after.
However, what holds true for the long-term future does not apply at all to the short-term future: it depends on us. We know that what will happen in the coming decades will be partly determined by what we do. In terms of the environment, all projections are concerning, whether it’s about climate change, habitat loss, resource depletion, biodiversity collapse, soil, water, and air pollution, or deforestation. Especially considering that all these phenomena are interdependent: air pollution exacerbates climate change, which accelerates deforestation, which reduces biodiversity, and so on.
Therefore, how should we philosophically think about the transition that needs to take place?
With Dominique Bourg, philosopher of science, honorary professor at the University of Lausanne, author of “Lessons from the Planetary Boundaries” (Actes Sud, 2025) and Sophie Swaton, philosopher and economist, teacher-researcher at the University of Lausanne, author of “The Eye of the Jaguar” (Actes Sud, 2025). Designer of the ecological transition income, she presides over the Zoein Foundation and its research Institute dedicated to the emerging civilization paradigm.
Dominique Bourg and Sophie Swaton have co-authored “Primacy of the Living, Essay on the Thinkable” (PUF, 2021).
