The country’s internal strength is still weak, and the quality of its growth is not yet high.
According to Deputy Nguyen Thi Minh Tu, during the period of 2021-2025, the average annual growth rate is expected to reach 6.2%. The GDP will rank 32nd globally, and GDP per capita will reach that of high-income countries. The Human Development Index (HDI) is expected to reach a high level of 0.766 by 2025. The Social Progress Index (IPS) will continue to progress, currently reaching a satisfactory level of 70.76 points, placing the country 63rd out of 171.
However, the country’s development model still has limitations. Growth does not rely truly on science, technology, and innovation. Economic restructuring is slow and lacks breakthroughs; the internal strength of the economy remains weak; productivity, quality, efficiency, and competitiveness remain low.
Delegates have cited various indicators reflecting the quality of Vietnam’s growth. Specifically, the average annual GDP growth rate reached 5.9% between 2011 and 2015, 6.0% between 2016 and 2020, 6.3% between 2021 and 2025, with a goal of 10.0% or more for the period 2026-2030. The contribution of Total Factor Productivity (PTF) to growth was around 33.5%, 45.7%, and about 47.0%, with an aim of over 55.0% for the next period. Average labor productivity growth was around 4.3%, 5.9%, and about 4.8%, with a target of around 8.5% for the 2026-2030 period. GDP per capita in the last year of each period was $2,596, $3,552, and $5,026, respectively, with a goal of around $8,500 for the next phase.
In her analysis of the causes and challenges faced, Delegate Nguyen Thi Minh Tu highlighted that despite a gradual increase in Total Factor Productivity (PTF), Vietnam’s contribution to PTF remains significantly lower than that of leading countries like Japan, South Korea, and China during their respective high-growth periods. PTF growth is mainly due to institutional advances and technical efficiency of companies, while economies of scale and technological progress contribute weakly.
Additionally, R&D expenditures remain modest, representing only about 0.53% of GDP, significantly lower than the average of upper-middle-income countries, which surpasses 1.5%. Although the share of businesses in total R&D expenses exceeded 60%, the gap in terms of innovation capacity compared to developing countries remains considerable.
Delegates also highlighted limited endogenous capacity, with exports depending mainly on FDIs, and a low ratio of value-added compared to other countries worldwide. The economy continues to operate under an export-driven growth model. The total import and export turnover in 2025 is estimated at $930 billion, with the FDI sector contributing 73% to the total export turnover and 69% to the total import turnover.
According to delegates, these challenges underscore the difficulties facing the development of national businesses in the context of building an independent and autonomous economy.
Institutional Advances, Development of the Digital Economy, and Green Transformation.
Delegate Nguyen Thi Minh Tu stated that the XIV National Congress resolution has introduced a new development model. This model transforms the role of the private sector, evolves the role of the state from creation to regulation, and favors qualitative growth over extensive growth. The goal is to improve the productivity, quality, efficiency, added value, and competitiveness of the economy, relying on science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation. This new model aims to create new high-quality production capacities and methods by making data economy, digital economy, green economy, and circular economy strategic pillars.
Therefore, delegates suggested that the report and resolution include additional clear tasks and solutions.
Regarding institutional reform, the focus should be on establishing institutions that empower individuals while holding them accountable, developing resource markets, and establishing institutions for a modern economy and a new economic model.
Concerning the transformation of the growth model, restructuring industries and sectors, developing new sectors, and new economic models, delegates emphasized the need for an economic restructuring linked to digital transformation and ecological transition.
Digital transformation must be at the core focus, with the objective of the digital economy reaching 30% of GDP by 2030, more than double the current 14% (in 2025). Out of this total, the basic digital economy represents 8.42%, and industry digitization 5.6%. Delegates mentioned that the report should include scenarios of digital economy growth to concentrate resources and solutions on developing the basic digital economy and industry digitization to improve efficiency and create value. Delegates cited Bac Ninh, where digital economy accounts for over 46%, and Thai Nguyen, over 29%.
Delegate Nguyen Thi Minh Tu proposed developing a national digital infrastructure and digital data systems, promoting digital transformation in public and private sectors, national 5G coverage, mastering strategic technologies such as AI, IoT, and blockchain, supporting companies in applying digital technologies, data, and automation in production and business, and developing digital industries such as information technology, telecommunications, and digital services.
[..]
