At six days from the end of the 2025-2026 Ligue 1 season, Opta’s predictions are getting clearer. They are based on thousands of simulations of the remaining matches and updated weekly. Here is the projected final ranking by the international specialist in sports data.
Paris Saint-Germain, who defeated Toulouse FC in this round, is credited with a 98.88% probability of winning the title. Behind them, RC Lens maintains a very favorable outlook for second place (93.15%), despite their heavy 3-0 defeat against Lille in the North derby.
With almost two-thirds of the season completed, FC Nantes is projected to finish in 17th place. From the third position onwards, the final ranking becomes very uncertain. Lille OSC, with three consecutive wins against Rennes, Marseille, and Lens, now sits in third place, one point ahead of Olympique de Marseille and AS Monaco. The Opta model reflects this uncertainty. Only three points separate the third from the seventh place in the actual ranking, making simulations particularly open in this part of the table.
In the relegation zone, the model is clearer. FC Metz, currently at the bottom, has an 81.84% probability of finishing in that position. FC Nantes follows with 73.19%. AJ Auxerre, currently 16th, is projected to be in the playoff zone in 62.71% of simulations. The 10th to 15th positions are highly contested, with probabilities ranging between 29 and 36% for Toulouse, Brest, Lorient, Angers, Paris FC, and Le Havre.
Context: The article discusses the predictions of the final standings in the Ligue 1 season by Opta, a sports data specialist, based on simulations of remaining matches.
Fact Check: The predictions provided by Opta are based on statistical analysis and simulations, not guaranteed outcomes.
